Wikipedia rmwiki https://rm.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Pagina_principala MediaWiki 1.47.0-wmf.21 first-letter Multimedia Spezial Discussiun Utilisader Utilisader discussiun Wikipedia Wikipedia discussiun Datoteca Datoteca discussiun MediaWiki MediaWiki discussiun Model Model discussiun Agid Agid discussiun Categoria Categoria discussiun TimedText TimedText talk Modul Modul Diskussion Veranstaltung Veranstaltung Diskussion 0 6877 174155 167992 2026-09-25T00:35:48Z InternetArchiveBot 16747 Rescuing 1 sources and tagging 0 as dead.) #IABot (v2.0.9.6 174155 wikitext text/x-wiki [[Datoteca:TAR-TAP-TAC.png|thumb|300px|Mellen las regiuns da la Republica Populara da la China ch’èn vegnidas designadas sco regiuns autonomas dal Tibet]] Ils '''tumults en Tibet''' han cumenzà ils 10 da mars 2008 cun demonstraziuns paschaivlas dals muntgs budistics a [[Lhasa]], la chapitala da la regiun autonoma dal [[Tibet]]. Quellas han gì lieu a chaschun dal 49avel di commemorativ da la revolta tibetana dal 1959 encunter il reschim da Peking. Ils muntgs han pretendì il return dal 14avel [[Dalai Lama]] [[Tenzin Gyatso]] or da l’exil e l’independenza dal Tibet da la [[Republica Populara da la China]]. Ils protests ed ils cravals han cumenzà cur che 300 muntgs han pretendì la relaschada d’auters muntgs tegnids en fermanza dapi l’atun 2007. Paucs dis suenter quests protests han gì lieu ils emprims acts da violenza ch’èn sa drizzads tant cunter civilists chinais sco er cunter las autoritads statalas. Oravant tut giuvens Tibetans han rebellà a Lhasa, ma suenter er en autras parts dal pajais.<ref name="profil132008">''Profil'' (numer 13/2008): [http://www.news.at/profil/index.html?/articles/0812/560/200734.shtml ''Als der Zorn nach Tibet kam''], 21&nbsp;da mars 2008.</ref> == Situaziun == [[Datoteca:Potala.jpg|thumb|Il palazi da Potala a Lhasa]] Sper la situaziun politica en il Tibet datti in bun dumber da facturs socio-economics ch’han manà als acts da violenza a Lhasa. Il reporter James Miles da ‹The Economist› vesa en ils eveniments bain in’emprova dals Tibetans (tant en il Tibet sco er ordaifer il pajais) da trair a niz ils Gieus olimpics en China per render attent a lur situaziun politica. Ma indizis per in’activitad organisada n’haja el betg constatà. Il cuntrari: la situaziun insupportabla a Lhasa giuditgescha el sco almain uschè impurtanta per analisar il succedì sco il protest politic.<ref>''CNN'': [http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/03/20/tibet.miles.interview/ ''Transcript: James Miles interview on Tibet''], publitgà ils 20 da mars 2008, consultà ils 9 d’avrigl 2008.</ref> En in auter rapport di Miles ch’ils excess parian dad esser en emprima lingia l’erupziun d’in odi etnic.<ref name="refeco">''The Economist'': [http://www.economist.com/daily/news/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10870258&top_story=1 ''Fire on the roof of the world''], publitgà ils 14 da mars 2008, consultà ils 19 da mars 2008.</ref> Tscherts Tibetans èn sa lamentads da discriminaziun sociala, da pajas malgistas ed èn er sa referids a las tunas che muntgs tibetans sajan vegnids arrestads e perfin mazzads ils dis avant ils tumults.<ref>''The New York Times'': [http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/25/world/asia/25tibet.html?fta=y ''Pressed Over Tibet, China Berates Foreign Media''], publitgà ils 25 da mars 2008, consultà ils 23 d’avrigl 2008.</ref> Ils onns precedents eran blers migrants d’autras parts da la China vegnids a Lhasa ed avevan acquistà ina gronda part da las pitschnas fatschentas da la citad. Ils Tibetans a Lhasa han subì sinaquai in’inflaziun ch’ha manà a pretschs elevads da mangiativas e da bains da consum. Ils abitants eran en pli preoccupads che la colliaziun da viafier tranter Lhasa ed autras parts da la China augmentia be anc il dumber da migrants en la citad. Ma els han acceptà la colliaziun, perquai che la regenza aveva empermess ch’in transport pli favuraivel sbassia er ils pretschs. Sco en autras regiuns dal pajais èn ils pretschs tuttina creschids vinavant, effectuond resentiments tranter las etnias a Lhasa.<ref name="refeco"/> La giuventetgna tibetana sa lamenta cuntinuadamain da betg avair las medemas cundiziuns per l’access a plazzas da lavur ed a la scolaziun.<ref>''«Sie haben sich am heftigsten beklagt, dass sie nicht die gleichen Stellen oder die gleiche Schulbildung bekommen wie die Chinesen, dass die Chinesen mehr Geld haben.»'', ''Neue Zürcher Zeitung'': [http://www.nzz.ch/nachrichten/international/die_jugend_will_mehr_1.693955.html ''Die Jugend will mehr''], publitgà ils 23 da mars 2008, consultà ils 9 d’avrigl 2008.</ref> La restituziun dal Tibet a la Republica Populara da la China l’onn 1951 e la revolta betg reussida dal 1959 genereschan vinavant tensiuns. Entant che la legitimitad da la suveranitad da la China è renconuschida da vart da la gronda part dals stadis e da las Naziuns unidas, è ella vegnida messa en dumonda d’advocats dal Moviment internaziunal per l’independenza dal Tibet. Ma il Dalai Lama ha exclus en sias consideraziuns l’independenza; el dumonda ‹be› l’autonomia entaifer la China.<ref name=BBC20080318> ''BBC News'': ''China blames Dalai Lama for riots'', publitgà ils 18 da mars 2008, consultà ils 19 da mars 2008.</ref> == Decurs dals eveniments == [[Datoteca:Tibetans Aba Sichuan China.jpg|thumb|Tibetans en la regiun d’Aba (Sichuan)]] Ils protests han cumenzà glindesdi, ils 10 da mars 2008, il 49avel di commemorativ da la revolta tibetana dal 1959 ch’ha sfurzà il Dalai Lama da fugir en l’India. A l’entschatta han 300 fin 400 muntgs da la claustra da Drepung demonstrà paschaivlamain sin las vias da Lhasa e pretendì il return dal Dalai Lama e l’independenza dal Tibet. Quests protests èn anc vegnids tolerads da las autoritads chinaisas. Ils 14 da mars han cumenzà ils excess en la citad veglia da Lhasa, nua che surtut Tibetans abiteschan. Ils protests èn oravant tut sa drizzads cunter ils Chinais d’origin Han (gruppa etnica, a la quala appartegnan 90&nbsp;% dals Chinais).<ref>''Die Zeit'': [http://www.zeit.de/online/2008/12/lhasa-reportage-sonntag?page=all ''Angst vor Repression''], 17&nbsp;da mars 2008<br /> ''Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung'': [http://www.faz.net/s/RubCF3AEB154CE64960822FA5429A182360/Doc~E8D2DFB553A8A4AFC8C9BF3ACC10AE819~ATpl~Ecommon~Scontent.html ''China und die tibetische Kultur: Museum des Hasses''], 18&nbsp;da mars 2008<br /> ''The Economist'': [http://www.economist.com/daily/news/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10870258&top_story=1 ''Tibet: Fire on the roof of the world''], 14&nbsp;da mars 2008<br /> ''Neue Zürcher Zeitung'': [http://www.nzz.ch/nachrichten/international/unruhen_in_lhasa_fordern_zahlreiche_tote__1.689797.html ''Unruhen in Lhasa fordern zahlreiche Tote''], 16&nbsp;da mars 2008.</ref> Lur fatschentas e vehichels èn vegnids sblundregiadas ed arsentads. Tenor indicaziuns da las autoritads chinaisas èn pliras persunas vegnidas blessadas grevamain e 13 mazzadas, per gronda part civilists chinais che sajan vegnids assassinads da Tibetans grits.<ref name="Tagesschau 17.3">''tagesschau.de'': [http://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/tibet148.html ''Überall, wo Tibeter wohnen, kommt es zu Aufständen''], 17&nbsp;da mars 2008 (cun maletgs ed intervistas da video cun il correspundent da l’ARD Jochen Grabert).</ref> Ma en general èsi grev da verifitgar las cifras, cunquai ch’il dumber da schurnalists era restrenschì. En il decurs dal di èn ils tumults sa derasads en ulteriuras parts da la citad.<ref name="economist14032008">''The Economist'': [http://www.economist.com/daily/news/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10870258&top_story=1 ''Tibet: Fire on the roof of the world''], 14&nbsp;da mars 2008.</ref> Il medem di è arrivà a Lhasa in grond dumber da policists e schuldads chinais.<ref name="profil132008"/> Las trais pli grondas claustras a ed enturn Lhasa (Drepung, Gandain e Sêra) èn vegnidas serradas. Perditgas han rapportà d’attatgas sin polizia, pumpiers e sanitaris da salvament. Tscherts policists hajan er duvrà gas lacrimogen e sajettà en l’aria; tenor ‹Radio Free Asia› sajan duas persunas mortas tar questas acziuns. A turists e collavuraturs d’organisaziuns d’agid è vegnì ordinà da bandunar il Tibet. Forzas da servetschs da segirezza chinais faschevan patruglia atras Lhasa.<ref>''Spiegel Online'': [http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/0,1518,541516,00.html ''China-Tibet-Krise: Tote bei Aufruhr in Lhasa – Dalai Lama in Sorge''], 14&nbsp;da mars 2008<br /> ''Stern'': [http://www.stern.de/politik/ausland/:Protest-M%F6nche-Neue-Unruhen-Lhasa/614252.html?nv=rss ''Protest der Mönche: Neue Unruhen in Lhasa''], 15&nbsp;da mars 2008 (cun video)<br /> ''Die Welt'': [http://www.welt.de/politik/article1800464/Proteste_in_Tibet_fordern_erste_Todesopfer.html ''Lhasa: Proteste in Tibet fordern erste Todesopfer''], 14&nbsp;da mars 2008<br /> ''Die Zeit'': [http://www.zeit.de/online/2008/12/lhasa-reportage-sonntag?page=all ''Angst vor Repression''], 17&nbsp;da mars 2008.</ref> Blers Tibetans, tranter els er blers muntgs, han demonstrà ils 16 da mars 2008 ad Aba (district da Ngawa, provinza da Sichuan). Tenor las indicaziuns da Tibetans en exil hajan ils servetschs da segirezza sinaquai utilisà gas lacrimogen, circumdà ina claustra e sajettà almain otg persunas. Ils 20 da mars ha l’agentura da novitads Xinhua communitgà sin basa d’infurmaziuns da la polizia che quatter demonstrants sajan vegnids blessads tar quest’operaziun tras sajets.<ref>''Die Welt'': [https://web.archive.org/web/20080321053208/http://newsticker.welt.de/index.php?channel=new&module=dpa&id=17224732 ''Neue Proteste von Tibetern in Chinas Provinz Sichuan aufgeflammt''], 16&nbsp;da mars 2008<br /> ''Oberösterreichische Nachrichten'': [http://www.nachrichten.at/apanews/apap/658344?PHPSESSID=e900060253699d3d21f1efdfac42e9a9 ''Antichinesische Proteste in Tibet weiten sich aus''], 16 da mars 2008<br /> ''Westdeutsche Allgemeine Zeitung'': [http://www.derwesten.de/nachrichten/politik/2008/3/21/news-32026573/detail.html ''Steinmeier: Wir wollen wissen, was in Tibet passiert''], 21&nbsp;da mars 2008.</ref> Tenor infurmaziuns da gruppas tibetanas en exil èn gruppas da fin 300 Tibetans marschadas en il district autonom Gannan ed a Sangchu<ref>''Stern'': [http://www.stern.de/politik/ausland/:Protest-M%F6nche-Neue-Unruhen-Lhasa/614252.html?nv=rss ''Protest der Mönche: Neue Unruhen in Lhasa''], 15&nbsp;da mars 2008 (cun video).</ref> en la provinza da Gansu tar las chasas da la regenza cun maletgs dal Dalai Lama. En la citad da Lanzhou èn 100 students tibetans sa participads en l’universitad locala ad ina chauma da seser. En las provinzas vischinas Sichuan, Gansu e Qinghai duajan medemamain plirs umans esser morts, surtut muntgs tibetans che demonstravan là.<ref name="Tagesschau 17.3"/> La regenza tibetana en exil discurra d’almain 80 morts.<ref>''[[Amnesty International]]'': [https://web.archive.org/web/20080705180808/http://amnesty.org/en/news-and-updates/news/un-scrutiny-tibet-crisis-required-20080317 ''UN scrutiny of Tibet crisis required''], 17&nbsp;da mars 2008<br /> ''Spiegel Online'': [http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/0,1518,542109,00.html ''Gewalt in Tibet: Dalai Lama droht mit Rücktritt''], 18&nbsp;da mars 2008.</ref> Il Dalai Lama è sa mussà preoccupà ed ha appellà ad omaduas varts da desister da la violenza. Sche la vart tibetana na chalia betg cun la violenza, vegnia el a sa retrair sco manader politic dals Tibetans e da la regenza en exil, ha il Dalai Lama smanatschà ils 18 da mars.<ref name="Spon18.3">''Spiegel Online'': [http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/0,1518,542109,00.html ''Gewalt in Tibet: Dalai Lama droht mit Rücktritt''], 18&nbsp;da mars 2008.</ref> Ils 18 d’avrigl ha il Dalai Lama declerà en in’intervista cun in schurnalist canadais che tenor ses savair sajan almain 400 persunas vegnidas mazzadas dapi il cumenzament dals tumults en il Tibet e passa milli persunas sajan vegnidas arrestadas.<ref>[http://www.radio-canada.ca/nouvelles/National/2008/04/18/004-Dalai-lama-canadiens.shtml ''Le dalaï-lama, la Chine et Hitler''], Radio-Canada.ca, Citat: ''«Selon lui, depuis le début des manifestations au Tibet, il y a un mois, au moins 400 people ont été tuées et des milliers d’autres arrêtées. Il déplore que les armes l’emportent maintenant sur la raison.»''</ref> == Reacziuns en China == [[Datoteca:Zhongnanhai.jpg|thumb|Il quartier Zhongnanhai a Peking furma la sedia da la regenza]] La regenza chinaisa ha refusà in’examinaziun internaziunala dals eveniments succedids. Er la preschientscha d’in delegà da las Naziuns unidas na ha in pledader dal ministeri da l’exteriur a Peking betg vulì acceptar cun l’argument che quai fiss in’intervenziun en «fatgs da l’intern». A medem temp ha el rinfatschà al Dalai Lama d’avair coincità ils tumults e ch’el engionia la publicitad internaziunala cun ina pluna manzegnas.<ref>''Frankfurter Rundschau'': [http://www.fr-online.de/in_und_ausland/politik/aktuell/?cnt=1305205 ''Vereinte Nationen: Ban fordert von China Zurückhaltung''], 17&nbsp;da mars 2008.</ref> Ils appels a la pasch dal Dalai Lama n’èn betg vegnids mussads a la publicitad chinaisa. Davant l’Assamblea naziunala populara da la China ha il primminister Wen Jiabao giustifitgà il proceder da las forzas da segirezza cunter ils demonstrants. El ha fatg responsabel ils adherents dal Dalai Lama per ils tumults e qua tras per las unfrendas e las destrucziuns. Plinavant ha el rinfatschà al Moviment per autonomia da torpedar cun quest conflict ils Gieus olimpics da stad.<ref>''tagesschau.de'': [http://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/tibet162.html ''Unruhen in Tibet: «Die Dalai-Lama-Clique ist schuld»''], 18&nbsp;da mars 2008.</ref> Wen Jiabao ha accusà il Dalai Lama d’avair planisà quests acts<ref name="Wen">''Wen Wei Po'': [https://web.archive.org/web/20080914125527/http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-03/18/content_7813012.htm 温总促达赖停止西藏暴力 (''Premier: ample facts prove Dalai’s role in Lhasa riot, door of dialogue still open)''], publitgà ils 31 da mars 2008, consultà ils 31 da mars 2008.</ref>, ma quel ha renvià las rinfatschas cun l’argument che questas revoltas sajan l’effect d’ina malcuntentientscha generala entaifer il Tibet.<ref>[http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB120781274458604467.html?mod=todays_free_feature ''Dalai Lama Calls Again For Crackdown Probe''].</ref> Dapi ils 17 da mars èn vegnids relaschads cumonds d’arrest per 21 persunas participadas presumtivamain als tumults. Fotografias da las persunas suspectadas èn vegnidas chargiadas sin sina.com e sin il portal chinais da Yahoo.<ref>''Xinhua'': [http://english.sina.com/china/1/2008/0320/151325.html ''Internet portals carry images of wanted Lhasa riot suspects''], 20&nbsp;da mars 2008.</ref> Ils 19 da mars 2008 ha [[Zhang Qingli]], il secretari da la partida communistica chinaisa en il Tibet acutisà la dispita. El ha discurrì d’in «cumbat per vita e mort cun la clicca dal Dalai Lama» e che quest cumbat pretendia controllas politicas pli rigurusas en ils territoris autonoms.<ref>''Spiegel Online'': [http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/0,1518,542317,00.html ''Proteste in Tibet: China droht mit Kampf auf Leben und Tod''], 19&nbsp;da mars 2008.</ref> Ils schurnalists Georg Blume (correspundent da la ‹taz› e la ‹ZEIT›) e Kristin Kupfer (correspundenta da ‹Profil›) èn vegnids bandegiads sco ultims schurnalists dal Tibet ils 20 da mars 2008.<ref>''die tageszeitung'': [http://www.taz.de/1/politik/asien/artikel/1/taz-reporter-aus-tibet-ausgewiesen/?src=MT&cHash=4f453dacb1 ''Folgen des Aufruhrs in Tibet: taz-Reporter aus Tibet ausgewiesen''], 20&nbsp;da mars 2008<br /> ''Die Zeit'': [https://web.archive.org/web/20080623005413/http://www.zeit.de/news/artikel/2008/03/20/2498088.xml ''Bericht aus Tibet: Georg Blume: «Es geht viel verloren»''], 20&nbsp;da mars 2008.</ref> Excepziunalmain han ins lubì ad ina gruppa da 26 schurnalists dal vest da far ina tura guidada en il Tibet. Ils 27 da mars ha ina gruppa da muntgs disturbà ina tura da pressa organisada da las autoritads chinaisas tras Lhasa cun demonstrar cunter la politica chinaisa.<ref>''tagesschau.de'': [http://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/tibet294.html ''Mönche protestieren vor ausländischen Journalisten''], 27. März 2008.</ref> Ils schurnalists da quella delegaziun eran vegnids selecziunads da las autoritads chinaisas e survegliads severamain durant lur temp a Lhasa. Ils 23 da mars 2008 èn per l’emprima giada entaifer la China s’annunziadas vuschs criticas envers il cumportament da la regenza. En in manifest en l’internet han 29 docents da scolas autas, auturs, advocats ed activists per dretgs da burgais preschentà ‹dudesch propostas davart la situaziun en il Tibet›.<ref>''New Century News'': [http://www.newcenturynews.com/Article/china/200803/20080322153025.html 关于处理西藏局势的十二点意见], 22 da mars 2008; traducziun tudestga en ''Die Welt'': [http://www.welt.de/politik/article1829458/Chinesische_Intellektuelle_fuer_neue_Tibet-Politik.html ''Mutiges Manifest: Chinesische Intellektuelle für neue Tibet-Politik''], 23&nbsp;da mars 2008.</ref> Ils 25 d’avrigl è la regenza chinaisa sa declerada nunspetgadamain pronta da retschaiver in represchentant dal Dalai Lama per in discurs.<ref>''FAZ.net'': [http://www.faz.net/s/RubDDBDABB9457A437BAA85A49C26FB23A0/Doc~EFB1051FC610F4F6583647F6BF18D7667~ATpl~Ecommon~Scontent.html Peking sucht wieder Kontakt zum Dalai Lama''] 25 d’avrigl 2008.</ref> === Bloccada da YouTube === Ils 16 da mars 2008 è l’access al portal da video ‹YouTube› vegnì bloccà en tschertas parts da la Republica Populara da la China. Tenor la gasetta ‹Focus› è quai succedì suenter che divers films davart ils protests en il Tibet eran cumparids là. ‹YouTube› era gia vegnì bloccà l’october 2007.<ref>''InfoWorld'': [http://www.infoworld.com/article/07/10/18/YouTube-blocked-in-China_1.html ''YouTube blocked in China; Flickr, Blogspot restored''], 18&nbsp;d’october 2007.</ref> En China vegnan paginas web estras per regla bloccadas immediatamain, sch’ellas cuntegnan critica envers la regenza.<ref>''Spiegel Online'': ''[http://www.spiegel.de/netzwelt/web/0,1518,541790,00.html Tibet-Revolte: China blockiert YouTube]'', 16&nbsp;da mars 2008<br /> ''Focus'': ''[https://web.archive.org/web/20150924045010/http://www.focus.de/digital/internet/tibet-videos_aid_265300.html China blockiert YouTube-Webseite]'', 16&nbsp;da mars 2008.<br /> ''Süddeutsche Zeitung'': ''[http://www.sueddeutsche.de/ausland/artikel/211/163751/China blockiert YouTube wegen Tibet-Videos]'', 16&nbsp;da mars 2008.</ref> == Reacziuns ordaifer la China == [[Datoteca:FreeTibetprotestSanFrancisco2008.jpg|thumb|Demonstraziun avant il consulat chinais a San Francisco]] Per il di commemorativ ils 10 da mars 2008 è er vegnì demonstrà en citads ordaifer la China. Protests da ca. 3000 demonstrants en la citad da Kathmandu èn vegnids schliads da las autoritads nepalaisas, plirs demonstrants èn vegnids arrestads. En l’India dueva in marsch da sis mais cun ca. 100 Tibetans en exil manar da Dharmshala fin en Tibet. La polizia ha dentant fermà quest marsch suenter paucs kilometers ed arrestà pliras persunas. Sin l’entir mund hai dà protests da Tibetans en exil davant ils stabiliments da las represchentaziuns diplomaticas da la Republica Populara da la China, uschia p.ex. a [[Washington D.C.]], [[Sydney]] e [[Copenhagen]]. A [[Turitg]] è vegnì bittà crappa sin il consulat chinais. A [[Melbourne]] ha la polizia schlià cun violenza ils protests davant il consulat chinais. A [[Paris]] han ils demonstrants attatgà l’ambassada e la polizia ha fatg diever da gas lacrimogen. A [[Minca]] han ca. 30 demonstrants attatgà il consulat general chinais e scrit parolas sco ‹Stop Killing› u ‹Rettet Tibet› vi da l’edifizi. La polizia ha prendì en fermanza 26 persunas. La ‹Tibet Initiative München› ha sinaquai appellà a la nunviolenza. Durant ina manifestaziun da solidaritad per il Tibet davant l’ambassada a [[Berlin]] ils 20 da mars 2008 ha in Tibetan schizunt dà fieu a sasez per protestar cunter la politica chinaisa. El ha pudì vegnir salvà da passants. La ministra da l’exteriur dals Stadis Unids, Condolezza Rice, ha appellà als demonstrants da desister da violenza e supplitgà la regenza chinaisa da sa retegnair en situaziuns da protests. La chanceliera federala tudestga [[Angela Merkel]] ha declerà ils 14 da mars 2008 che la regenza tudestga sustegnia gia adina ils sforzs per dapli auonomia religiusa e culturala en il Tibet.<ref>''Reuters'': [http://de.today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=topNews&storyID=2008-03-17T060604Z_01_NEI721949_RTRDEOC_0_DEUTSCHLAND-TIBET-OLYMPIA-WE-ZF.xml&archived=False ''Merkel lehnt Olympia-Boykott wegen Unruhen in Tibet ab''], 17&nbsp;da mars 2008.</ref> Ma a medem temp sa drizzia la regenza cunter tut ils sforzs separatistics. == Boicot dals Gieus olimpics == [[Datoteca:Paris Palais Chaillot Beijing Olympics boycott demonstration.jpg|thumb|Demonstraziun per boicottar ils Gieus olimpics a Peking (Paris, mars 2008)]] Ils rapports davart la situaziun en il Tibet han effectuà sin l’entir mund discussiuns davart in boicot pussaivel dals Gieus olimpics 2008 a Peking. Tibetans han demonstrà davant l’edifizi dal Comité olimpic internaziunal a Losanna. Tuttina èn il Dalai Lama, il Comité olimpic internaziunal, la chanceliera federala tudestga Merkel ed ils ministers da sport da l’Uniun europeica s’exprimids cunter in boicot dals Gieus olimpics. Il Dalai Lama ha sustegnì ils Gieus olimpics a Peking e ditg ch’il pievel chinais meritia d’organisar quests gieus<ref>''Reuters'': [http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUST17383020080410 ''Dalai Lama backs Olympics, says violence outdated''], publitgà ils 10 d’avrigl 2008, consultà ils 12 d’avrigl 2008.</ref>, ma ses delegà ha pretendì da la regenza chinaisa da metter ina fin a la razzia militara e da betg integrar il Tibet en la ruta da la cursa da la flomma olimpica.<ref>''Agence_France-Presse'': [https://web.archive.org/web/20080408031806/http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5jt-Bnn9Znx27RmyvpYHjCuHNK8Yg ''China urged to drop Tibet from Olympic torch route''], publitgà ils 4 d’avrigl 2008, consultà ils 4 d’avrigl 2008.</ref><ref>''Sify News'': [http://sify.com/news/fullstory.php?id=14638270 ''Dalai Lama calls for more global pressure on China''], publitgà ils 4 d’avrigl 2008, consultà ils 4 d’avrigl 2008.</ref> Ils 22 da mars ha l’emprim politicher da num, il parlamentari da l’Uniun europeica Hans-Gert Pöttering (CDU), smanatschà cun in boicot dals Gieus olimpics. Sche Peking na veglia betg communitgar cun il Dalai Lama, sajan mesiras per in boicot giustifitgadas. Ils 30 da mars ha l’Uniun europeica decidì a Brdo en [[Slovenia]] da s’exprimer communablamain cunter in boicot dals Gieus olimpics. Quai schegea ch’ils commembers eran da differentas opiniuns, tranter els il president franzos Nicolas Sarkozy che na vuleva betg excluder in boicot. Durant la cursa da la flomma olimpica hai dà divers incidents pervi da demonstrants pro-Tibet (u en singuls cas er pro-China). Ils curriders e purtaders da la flomma han stuì vegnir protegids da forzas da segirezza per impedir che la flomma vegnia stizzada. == Annotaziuns == <div class="references-small" style="-moz-column-count: 2; column-count: 2;"><references /> </div> == Colliaziuns == * [http://www.nzz.ch/magazin/dossiers/chinas_problem_mit_tibet_2.45313 ''Chinas Problem mit Tibet''], dossier d’artitgels da la ''Neue Zürcher Zeitung'' * [http://www.taz.de/1/archiv/dossiers/dossier-tibet/ ''Tibet in Aufruhr''], dossier da la ''tageszeitung'' (cun rapports da Georg Blume e Kristin Kupfer or da Lhasa) * [http://www.zeit.de/themen/international/tibet/index ''Unruhen in Tibet''], dossier da la ''Zeit'' (cun ulteriurs rapports da Blume e Kupfer) * [https://web.archive.org/web/20080816192940/http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/0,1518,k-7309,00.html ''Tibet - Aufstand auf dem Dach der Welt''], dossier da ''Spiegel Online'' * [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_depth/asia_pacific/2008/tibet_tensions/default.stm ''Tension in Tibet''], paginas spezialas da ''BBC News'' * [http://www.nzz.ch/nachrichten/international/muslime_als_dritte_partei_im_tibet-konflikt_1.695041.html ''Muslime als dritte Partei im Tibet-Konflikt''], artitgel da la ''NZZ'' dals 26 da mars 2008 * [http://www.eurasischesmagazin.de/artikel/?artikelID=20080505 ''Tibet. Die Lobby des Dalai Lama''], commentaris davart ils tumults en il magazin eurasic {{DEFAULTSORT:Tibet, Tumults dal 2008 en}} [[Categoria:Temp modern‎]] [[Categoria:Artitgels recumandads]] seg51cpo40a8p9w5xdlscgm4lsbxx1e 0 7745 174153 168503 2026-09-25T00:33:55Z InternetArchiveBot 16747 Rescuing 1 sources and tagging 0 as dead.) #IABot (v2.0.9.6 174153 wikitext text/x-wiki [[Datoteca:Scholven Powerplant.jpg|thumb|Ovra d’energia da charvun a Scholven, Germania]] [[Datoteca:Ulithi-atoll.gif|thumb|L’augment dal livel da la mar periclitescha numerusas inslas tropicas]] [[Datoteca:Global Temperature Anomaly.svg|thumb|Temperaturas medias globalas tranter il 1880 ed il 2020 sin la surfatscha da la Terra tenor mesiraziuns dal ''Goddard Institute for Space Studies'']] [[Datoteca:1000 Jahr Temperaturen-Vergleich.png|thumb|Il svilup da la temperatura media globala durant ils ultims 1000 onns, reconstruì tenor diversas funtaunas e mesirà directamain dapi il 19avel tschientaner]] Sco '''stgaudament global''' definesch’ins l’augment successiv da la temperatura media da l’atmosfera en vischinanza da la terra e da las mars. Il term vegn duvrà tant per descriver l’augment observà durant ils decennis passads sco er per tematisar l’ulteriur stgaudament spetgà en il futur. Il motiv principal dal stgaudament global è tenor l’enclegientscha scientifica ‹fitg probablamain›<ref>La decleraziun suonda la lingua scientifica da l’IPCC, nua che ‹fitg probabel› munta ina probabilitad d’almain 90 pertschient.</ref> in rinforzament da l’[[effect da serra]] entras l’uman.<ref name="IPCC 2007">''[[Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]]'' (2007): [http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg1.htm ''IPCC Fourth Assessment Report'' – rapport da la gruppa da lavur 1 davart ''The Physical Science Basis'']</ref><ref>Hansen et al. 2005: ''Efficacy of climate forcings'', en: ''Journal of Geophysical Research'', 110, D18104, [http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2005/2005_Hansen_et al_2.pdf (PDF, 20,5MB)]</ref> Cun brischar [[combustibels fossils]] e cun runcar ils guauds sin l’entir mund sa concentrescha dioxid carbonic (CO₂) en l’aria. Midadas en la moda d’utilisar il terren (sco per exempel en l’agricultura ed en l’allevament dal muvel) èn in’ulteriura raschun per quest effect, oravant tut pervia da svapurs da [[gas da serra]] impurtants sco [[metan]]. La denominaziun ‹stgaudament global› è vegnida creada durant ils onns 1980 e 1990 e vegn savens duvrada sco sinonim per il term pli general ‹midada dal clima›. La midada dal clima descriva dentant il midament natiral dal clima sin la Terra sur ina perioda pli lunga e cumpiglia uschia l’istorgia dal clima en general. Il stgaudament global sa referescha percunter al midament dal clima preschent che vegn chaschunà da l’uman. Quest auzament da la temperatura media sin la Terra è collià cun consequenzas globalas, regiunalas e localas. La perscrutaziun scientifica areguard il stgaudament global vegn resumada en intervals da plirs onns entras la ‹Gruppa d’experts interguvernamentala davart midaments dal clima› (''Intergovernmental Panel on Climat Change'', IPCC). Las analisas da l’IPCC furman la savida actuala davart l’influenza umana sin il sistem climatic e valan sco basa per las discussiuns politicas e scientificas. A l’ultim e [[quart rapport d’evaluaziun da l’IPCC]] èn passa 2500 scienziads da 130 differents pajais sa participads.<ref>[http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/press-ar4/ipcc-flyer-low.pdf(PDF) Quart rapport d’evaluaziun da l’PCC sorta. In maletg da la midada dal clima, il stadi actual d’enclegientscha] Gruppa d’experts interguvernamentala davart midaments dal clima (IPCC en englais), ils 30 da fanadur 2008</ref> Quest rapport conferma che la probabilitad ch’il stgaudament climatic saja d’origin uman importa passa 90&nbsp;%.<ref name=GIEC2007verylikely>Il [http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf rapport 2007 da l’IPCC] utilisescha il term ''very likely'' (‹fitg probabel›), cfr. p. 17. «''Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is ‹very likely› due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. This is an advance since the Third Assessment Report’s conclusion (in 2001) that ‹most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations''». Las denominaziun scientificas muntan: ''virtually certain'' > 99&nbsp;%, ''probability of occurrence'', ''extremely likely''> 95&nbsp;%, ''very likely'' > 90&nbsp;%, ''likely'' > 66&nbsp;%, ''more likely than not'' > 50&nbsp;%, ''unlikely'' < 33&nbsp;%, ''very unlikely'' < 10&nbsp;%, ''extremely unlikely'' < 5&nbsp;%. La rolla probabla da l’uman en la midada dal clima è s’augmentada tranter il 2001 ed il 2007. En il rapport dal 2001 era questa rolla qualifitgada be cun ''likely'', cfr. [https://web.archive.org/web/20120308101827/http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/vol4/english/015.htm]</ref> Las analisas da l’IPCC furman ina basa essenziala da quest artitgel. == Causas == === Basas da l’effect da serra === [[Datoteca:Sun climate system alternative (rumantsch).jpg|thumb|left|300px|Schema da l’effect da serra: radiaziun d’undas curtas dal sulegl (mellen) cuntanscha l’atmosfera e la surfatscha da la Terra. Radiaziun d’undas lungas (cotschen) vegn emessa da la surfatscha da la Terra ed absorbada quasi cumplettamain en l’atmosfera. En in equiliber termic vegn quest’energia radiada per la mesadad en direcziun da la Terra ed en l’univers]] L’effect da serra pon ins manar enavos sin ils gas da serra sco vapur d’aua (H₂O), dioxid carbonic (CO₂), metan (CH₄), monoxid dinitrogenic (N₂O, er enconuschent sco gas ilarant) e cumbinaziuns da fluor (CFC – clorofluorocarbons e FC – fluorocarbons, per tudestg: FCKW/FKW). La radiaziun d’undas curtas nà dal sulegl laschan quests gas penetrar quasi senza impediments. Undas lungas (infracotschen) ch’arrivan da la surfatscha da la Terra vegnan percunter absorbadas dals gas da serra. Tras quai sa stgaudan ils gas ed emettan undas lungas tant en direcziun da l’univers sco da la Terra. Uschia survegn la surfatscha da la Terra dapli radiaziun ch’entras il sulegl persul e sa stgauda pli fitg. La radiaziun or dals gas da serra che va vers la Terra vegn era numnada ‹cunterradiaziun atmosferica›, cunquai ch’ella è cunterdrizzada a l’eradiaziun termica da la Terra. Quest process da stgaudament ed augment da radiaziun cuntinuescha fin che tut las bilantschas d’energia èn equilibradas. Sin in nivel da temperatura pli aut regna lura sin la Terra in equiliber tranter radiaziun absorbada e perdita d’energia. [[Datoteca:Major greenhouse gas trends.png|thumb|Trend dals gas da serra antropogens impurtants dal 1970 al 2010. Dioxid carbonic e gas ilarant creschan cuntinuadamain, metan e clorofluorocarbons (CFC) restan per gronda part constants dapi il 1999]] Gas da serra na furman betg dentant en mintga cas in problem. Il cuntrari: tals gas datti da natira anora en l’atmosfera, oravant tut en furma da vapur d’aua, dioxid carbonic, metan e gas ilarant. L’augment da temperatura chaschunà da quels gas vegn numnà effect da serra natiral. Senza quel sa chattass la temperatura globala da la Terra en media sin ca. -18&nbsp;°C (e cunquai per var 33&nbsp;°C sut la temperatura d’oz che munta approximativamain +15&nbsp;°C). Tras quai fiss la Terra inabitabla per la gronda part dals organissems superiurs. Las cumponentas principalas da l’atmosfera terrestra furman nitrogen, oxigen ed argon (ensemen passa 99,9&nbsp;%). Questas cumponentas na chaschunan praticamain nagin effect da serra. Sulettamain las pitschnas concentraziuns dals gas da serra numnads pussibiliteschan ensemen cun la vapur d’aua la vita umana sin la Terra. === Retroacziuns === L’effect dals singuls facturs entaifer il sistem climatic vegn cumplitgà entras divers process da retroacziun (engl. ''feedback'', tud. ''Rückkopplung''). In da quels furma l’evapuraziun da l’aua. In stgaudament entras in auzament dals gas da serra lascha evapurar dapli aua en l’atmosfera. Cunquai ch’era vapur d’aua agescha sco gas da serra, sa stgauda l’atmosfera supplementarmain; quest stgaudament lascha evapurar anc dapli aua (ina retroacziun positiva) ed uschia vinavant fin ch’auters process ferman questa circulaziun. La consequenza è in effect da serra bler pli grond che quel ch’ils gas da serra chaschunan. Malgrà che quest process da retroacziun effectuescha in auzament da l’umiditad absoluta da l’aria, resta l’[[umiditad relativa]] quasi constanta u sa sbassa perfin levamain, perquai che l’aria è pli chauda.<ref name="soden1"> Soden, Brian J., Held, Isacc M.: ''An Assessment of climate Feedbacks in Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Models'' en: ''Journal of Climate'', 1. da november 2005, tom 19, nr. 14, p. 3354–3360. [http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/reference/bibliography/2006/bjs0601.pdf (PDF)] data d’access: 21 d’avrigl 2007. «''Interestingly, the true feedback is consistently weaker than the constant relative humidity value, implying a small but robust reduction in relative humidity in all models on average''», «''clouds appear to provide a positive feedback in all models''»</ref> Quest effect da retroacziun po be vegnir vulvì plaunsieu, damai ch’ils gas da serra han ina lunga vita atmosferica. Er effects da retroacziun en connex cun nivels èn in champ da retschertgas permanentas. Vesì da sutensi emettan nivels enavos radiaziun infracotschna sin la surfatscha e mettan uschia en moviment in effect da stgaudament. Vesì da surengiu reflecteschan nivels la glisch dal sulegl. Tras quai emettan els radiaziun infracotschna enavos en l’univers e chaschunan in effect sfradentant. Schebain l’effect netto è stgaudant u sfradentant, dependa dal tip e da l’autezza dal nivel. Da represchentar quests detagls en models da clima è difficil, per part era perquai che nivels èn bler pli pitschens ch’il raster dals models da clima.<ref name="soden1" /> In’autra retroacziun impurtanta è quella da glatsch e d’albedo.<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20170119085936/http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/295.htm ] Stocker, Thomas F. et al.: ''7.5.2 Sea Ice. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change''. 20 da schaner 2001, editur: ''[[Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change]]''. Data d’access: 11 da favrer 2007</ref> Sche las temperaturas globalas s’augmentan, lieua il glatsch als pols pli fitg. Cura ch’il glatsch lieua, prendan la terra u l’aua averta en ses plaz. Terren ed aua (omadus pli stgirs ch’il glatsch) reflecteschan main ch’il glatsch ed absorbeschan uschia dapli radiaziun solara. Quai stgauda anc pli fitg, anc dapli glatsch lieua ed il ciclus cuntinuescha. Ina retroacziun chaschunada entras l’emissiun da CO₂ e CH₄ or da la schelira permanenta che sdreglia, per exempel or da las [[palì|palids]] da [[turba]] en [[Sibiria]], è in ulteriur mecanissem che po contribuir al stgaudament.<ref>[http://www.guardian.co.uk/climatechange/story/0,12374,1546824,00.html] Sample, Ian: ''Warming Hits Tipping Point'', 11 d’avust 2005, editur: ''[[The Guardian]]'', data d’access: 18 da schaner 2007</ref> Sumegliantamain po in’emissiun massiva da CH₄ or da [[metanidrat]] (era metanclatrat u glatsch da metan; metan enserrà en moleculs d’aua schelada) en las mars causar in stgaudament rapid. Ins suppona en pli che l’abilitad dals oceans da secretar carbon sa reduceschia cura ch’els sa stgaudan. En la zona mesopelagica (en ina profunditad da ca. 200 fin 1000 m) limitescha quai numnadamain la creschientscha da [[diatoms]] (bacillariophyta che furman ina basa da la piramida da nutriment) a favur dal fitoplancton ch’ha in pli pitschen effect da pumpa biologica da carbon.<ref>[http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/316/5824/567] Buesseler, Ken O. et al.: ''Revisiting Carbon Flux Through the Ocean’s Twilight Zone'', 27 d’avrigl 2007, tom 316, nr. 5824, p. 567–570. Data d’access: 16 da november 2007.</ref> === Effect da serra antropogen === [[Datoteca:Carbon_Dioxide_400kyr.png|thumb|left|Svilup da la concentraziun da CO₂ durant ils 420&nbsp;000 onns passads. Retschertgas pli novas han extendì il temp da perscrutaziun sin passa 650&nbsp;000 onns, il maletg da basa n’è dentant betg sa midà]] Dapi la [[Revoluziun industriala]] rinforza l’uman l’effect da serra natiral cun chaschunar las svapurs da gas da serra.<ref name="Philipona et al. 2004">R. Philipona, B. Dürr, C. Marty, A. Ohmura, M. Wild (2004): ''Radiative forcing – measured at Earth’s surface – corroborate the increasing greenhouse effect'', en: ''Geophysical Research Letters'', tom 31, 6 da favrer, [http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2004/2003GL018765.shtml online]</ref><ref name="Harries 2001">J.E. Harries, H.E. Brindley, P.J. Sagoo, R.J. Bantges (2001): ''Increases in greenhouse forcing inferred from the outgoing longwave radiation spectra of the Earth in 1970 and 1997'', en: ''Nature'', tom 410, p. 355–357, 15 da mars, [http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v410/n6826/abs/410355a0.html online]</ref> Tenor mesiraziuns or da nuschegls da sondagi da glatsch n’era la concentraziun da CO₂ en ils ultims 800&nbsp;000 onns mai pli auta che 300&nbsp;ppmV (''parts per million'', parts per milliun dal volumen).<ref name="Siegenthaler et al. 2005">Siegenthaler, Urs, Thomas F. Stocker, Eric Monnin, Dieter Lüthi, Jakob Schwander, Bernhard Stauffer, Dominique Raynaud, Jean-Marc Barnola, Hubertus Fischer, Valérie Masson-Delmotte e Jean Jouzel (2005): ''Stable Carbon Cycle–Climate Relationship During the Late Pleistocene'', en: ''Science'', tom 310, nr. 5752, p. 1313–1317, 25 da november, guarda er abstract [http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/short/310/5752/1313/ online]</ref><ref name="Lüthi et al. 2008">Dieter Lüthi, Martine Le Floch, Bernhard Bereiter, Thomas Blunier, Jean-Marc Barnola, Urs Siegenthaler, Dominique Raynaud, Jean Jouzel, Hubertus Fischer, Kenji Kawamura e Thomas F. Stocker (2008): ''High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650&nbsp;000–800&nbsp;000 years before present'', en: ''Nature'', tom 453, p. 379-382, [http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v453/n7193/full/nature06949.html online]</ref> Surtut cun brischar materias primas fossilas, ma era – en pli pitschnas dimensiuns – pervia da l’industria da cement e d’ina gronda deforestaziun a partir da l’industrialisaziun, è la concentraziun da CO₂ creschida sin passa 385&nbsp;ppmV. Quai è probablamain la pli auta cifra dapi 20 milliuns onns.<ref name="Prentice et al. 2001">Prentice, I., et al. (2001):''The Carbon Cycle and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide'', en IPCC 2001: ''Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis'' (p. 185), guarda [https://web.archive.org/web/20091207172617/http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/096.htm online]</ref> L’onn 2006 èn arrivads en l’atmosfera 36,3 Gt CO₂ producì supplementarmain da l’uman u ca. 9,9 Gt carbon da l’entir mund.<ref name="Canadell et al. 2007">Josep Canadella, Corinne Le Quéré, Michael Raupacha, Christopher Fielde, Erik Buitenhuisc, Philippe Ciaisf, Thomas Conwayg, Nathan Gillettc, R. Houghtonh und Gregg Marland (2007): ''Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks'', en: ''Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences'', [https://web.archive.org/web/20080409135547/http://www.pnas.org/cgi/reprint/0702737104v1.pdf online (PDF)]</ref> La part per volumen dal metan munta oz enstagl da 730 ppbV a 1783 ppbV (''parts per billion'', parts per milliarda dal volumen). Quai è il pli aut nivel dapi almain 800&nbsp;000 onns.<ref name="Loulergue et al. 2008">Laetitia Loulergue, Adrian Schilt, Renato Spahni, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Thomas Blunier, Bénédicte Lemieux, Jean-Marc Barnola, Dominique Raynaud, Thomas F. Stocker e Jérôme Chappellaz (2008): ''Orbital and millennial-scale features of atmospheric CH4 over the past 800&nbsp;000 years'', en: ''Nature'', tom 453, p. 383–386, [http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v453/n7193/full/nature06950.html online]</ref> Sco causa principala per quai è d’enumerar la tratga d’animals intensiva (''factory farming'')<ref>[[Welternährungsorganisation|FAO]] (2006): [https://web.archive.org/web/20080625012113/http://www.virtualcentre.org/en/library/key_pub/longshad/A0701E00.pdf ''Livestock’s Long Shadow – Environmental Issues and Options'' (PDF, 4,8 MB))]</ref> ed ulteriuras activitads agriculas sco la cultivaziun da ris. La part per volumen dal gas ilarant è creschida da 270 ppbV sin 319 ppbV.<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20110716073547/http://cdiac.ornl.gov/pns/current_ghg.html T.J. Blasing e Karmen Smith: ''Recent Greenhouse Gas Concentrations'', CDIAC (''Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center''), 2006]</ref> En la climatologia regia consentiment che questas concentraziuns creschidas da gas da serra emess da l’uman furman la causa principala dal stgaudament global.<ref name="Oreskes 2004">Naomi Oreskes (2004): ''The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change'', en: ''Science'' tom 306 dals 4 da december (curregì: 21 da schaner 2005) [http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/reprint/306/5702/1686.pdf (PDF, 81 KB)]</ref><ref name="Scientific Academies 2005">Posiziun cuminaivla da las academias per la scienza naziunalas dals pajais da G8 sco era la Brasilia, l’India e la China (2005): ''Joint science academies’ statement: Global response to climate change'' [https://web.archive.org/web/20070609091341/http://www.royalsoc.ac.uk/displaypagedoc.asp?id=20742 (PDF)]</ref> Pertge senza quella na fissan las temperaturas mesiradas betg explitgablas.<ref name="Meehl et al. 2004">Meehl, Gerald A., Warren M. Washington, Caspar M Ammann, Julie M. Arblaster, T. M. L. Wigleiy e Claudia Tebaldi (2004): ''Combinations of Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings in Twentieth-Century Climate'', en: ''Journal of Climate'', tom 17, 1. d’october, p. 3721–3727 [https://web.archive.org/web/20081217022912/http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/ccr/publications/meehl_additivity.pdf (PDF)]</ref><ref name="Hansen et al. 2007">Hansen, James et al. (2007): ''Dangerous human-made interference with climate: a GISS modelE study'', en: ''Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics'', tom 7, p. 2287-2312 [https://web.archive.org/web/20111022014654/http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2007/2007_Hansen_etal_1.pdf (PDF, 6 MB)]</ref><ref name="Hegerl et al. 2006">Gabriele C. Hegerl, Thomas R. Karl, Myles Allen et al.: ''Climate Change Detection and Attribution: Beyond Mean Temperature Signals'', en: ''Journal of Climate'', tom 19, Special Section, 15 d’october 2006, p. 5058–5077, [https://web.archive.org/web/20070824155304/http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~nathan/pdf/hegerletal_jclimate_clivar.pdf (PDF)]</ref> Il grad d’enclegientscha scientifica davart l’effect da gas da serra taxescha l’IPCC sco ‹aut›.<ref name="IPCC 2007"/> Tenor in’enquista internaziunala da l’onn 2007 èn 45–50&nbsp;% dals scienziads da clima dal madem avis scol’IPCC. Mintgamai 15–20&nbsp;% considereschan ils rapports da l’IPCC sco memia exagerads u memia precauts. Almain 97&nbsp;% dals scienziads participads conferman la tesa che las emissiuns antropogenas da dioxid carbonic furmian ina part impurtanta dal sistem climatic e sajan almain parzialmain responsablas per il stgaudament dals decennis passads.<ref name="Brown et al. 2007">Brown, Fergus W.M., Roger A. Pielke, Sr., und James D. Annan (2007): ''Is there agreement amongst climate scientists on the IPCC AR4 WG1?'' studi nunpublitgà [https://web.archive.org/web/20110524181009/http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/research/d5/jdannan/survey.pdf (PDF)]</ref> En ina retschertga fatga il 2006 tar scienziads da clima tudestgs inditgeschan 38&nbsp;% che la tesa da la causa antropogena da l’auzament da la temperatura en il 20avel tschientaner valia sco cumprovada. 56&nbsp;% mettan parzialmain en dumonda questa tesa e 5&nbsp;% mettan ella fermamain en dumonda. 46&nbsp;% dals scienziads dumandads inditgeschan ch’il svilup dal clima dals ultims 50 onns saja influenzà per gronda part dal depurtament da l’uman, 27&nbsp;% inditgeschan facturs antropogens e natirals sco motiv probabel e 11&nbsp;% accentueschan predominantamain motivs natirals.<ref name="kepplinger 2008">Hans M. Kepplinger e S. Post (2008): ''Klimakatastrophe oder Katastrophenklima? Die Berichterstattung über den Klimawandel aus Sicht der Klimaforscher'', Chasa editura R. Fischer [http://www.welt.de/welt_print/article1210902/Die_Klimaforscher_sind_sich_laengst_nicht_sicher.html Bericht der ''Welt'' dazu]</ref> === Activitad solara e radiaziun cosmica === [[Datoteca:Solar-cycle-data-German.png|thumb|Il graf da l’activitad solara dapi il 1975 na mussa nagin auzament durant ils ultims 30 onns]] Sper ils gas da serra contribueschan anc auters facturs main impurtants al stgaudament global. Da menziunar è qua l’intensitad da radiaziun dal sulegl – era sche quest factur vegn valità differentamain. L’enclegientscha scientifica davart l’influenza da l’activitad solara oscillanta sin il clima vegn stimada da l’IPCC sco ‹pitschna›.<ref name="IPCC 2007"/> Ina cifra fitg auta areguard questa tesa chatt’ins tar Stott et al. (2003). Quels stiman la cumpart solara al stgaudament global observà tranter il 1950 ed il 1999 en in interval da 16&nbsp;% fin 36&nbsp;%.<ref name="Stott et al. 2003">Stott, Peter A., Gareth S. Jones e John F.B. Mitchell (2003): ''Do Models Underestimate the Solar Contribution to Recent Climate Change?'' En: ''Journal of Climate'', tom 16, december, p. 4079–4093 [https://web.archive.org/web/20050515162513/http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/StottEtAl.pdf (PDF)]</ref> Tenor in studi da Scafetta e West (2007) pudess il sulegl perfin avair contribuì tranter 8&nbsp;% e 42&nbsp;% al stgaudament global dapi il 1950.<ref>Scafetta, N., e B. J. West (2007), ''Phenomenological reconstructions of the solar signature in the Northern Hemisphere surface temperature records since 1600'', en: ''Journal of Geophysical Research'', 112, D24S03</ref> Sami Solanki, directur a l’[[Institut da Max Planck]] per perscrutaziun dal sistem solar, argumentescha ch’il sulegl sa chattia dapi 70 onns en in maximum d’activitad. Quai saja visibel vi dal dumber dals [[flatgs solars]] ch’effectueschian ina traglischur uschè ferma sco dapi 8000 onns betg pli.<ref name="Solanki et al. 2004">Solanki, Sami, I.G. Usoskin, B. kromer, M. Schüssler e J. Beer (2004): ''Unusual activity of the Sun during recent decades compared to the previous 11&nbsp;000 years'', en: ''Nature'', tom 431, 28 d’october, p. 1084–1087 [http://cc.oulu.fi/%7Eusoskin/personal/nature02995.pdf (PDF)]</ref> Malgrà quest’activitad extraordinaria vegn Solanki tar la conclusiun ch’il sulegl na possia betg esser stà il factur dominant e che sia cumpart al stgaudament dapi il 1970 cumpiglia maximalmain 30&nbsp;%.<ref name="MPS 2004">Max Planck Society (2004): ''How Strongly Does the Sun Influence the Global Climate?'' ''Press Release'', 2 d’avust, guarda [http://www.mpg.de/english/illustrationsDocumentation/documentation/pressReleases/2004/pressRelease20040802/ online]</ref><ref name="Solanki et al. 2003">Solanki, S.K. e N.A. Krivova (2003): ''Can solar variability explain global warming since 1970?'', en: ''Journal of Geophysical Research'', tom 108, nr. A5, 1200</ref> Natalie Krivova, ina collega da Solanki, scriva medemamain ch’i saja fitg probabel ch’il sulegl n’haja betg contribuì a moda signifitganta suenter il 1980 al stgaudament global.<ref>[http://www.mps.mpg.de/projects/sun-climate/sunearth.html Natalie Krivova sin ina pagina web da l’Institut da Max Planck per perscrutaziun dal sulegl: ''The Sun and Earth’s Climate – Some Results'']. Citat en original: «''It is highly likely, however, that after 1980 the Sun has not contributed in any significant way to global warming.''»</ref> L’analisa da Solanki vegn però era crititgada, oravant tut pervia da sia metoda da reconstruir ils millennis passads.<ref name="Muscheler et al. 2005">Muscheler, Raimund, Fortunat Joos, Simon A. Müller e Ian Snowball (2005): ''How unusual is today’s solar activity?'', en: ''Nature'', tom 436, 28 da fanadur, p. E3–E4 [https://web.archive.org/web/20060108180530/http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/ccr/raimund/publications/Muscheler_et_al_Nature2005.pdf (PDF)]</ref> Autras reconstrucziuns na mussan strusch in connex tranter ils flatgs solars e la temperatura mesirada sin la Terra dapi il 17avel tschientaner.<ref>Leif Svalgaard: ''(No?) Century-scale Secular Variation in HMF, EUV, or TSI'', Contribuziun per il ''Fall Meeting der American Geophysical Union'' 2007, GC31B-0351 [https://web.archive.org/web/20090106035048/http://www.leif.org/research/GC31B-0351-F2007.pdf (PDF)]</ref> Henrik Svensmark, in fisicher danais e scienzià dal clima, ha formulà l’ipotesa d’in connex tranter il clima e la radiaziun cosmica.<ref>Henrik Svensmark ''Influence of Cosmic Rays on Earth’s Climate'', en: ''Physical Review Letters'', tom 81, p. 5027–5030, 1998 [http://www.dsri.dk/~hsv/prlresup2.pdf(PDF)</ref> Pervia da l’activitad solara augmentada vegnia la radiaziun cosmica deviada pli fitg davent da l’atmosfera e perdia uschia si’intensitad. Quai haja per consequenza ch’i sa furmian damain nivels sin la Terra. Questa teoria defenda era l’astrofisicher Nir Shaviv.<ref>Nir J. Shaviv (2002): ''Cosmic Ray Diffusion from the Galactic Spiral Arms, Iron Meteorites, and a Possible Climatic Connection'', en: ''Phys. Rev. Lett.'' 89, 051102,</ref> Il connex static tranter radiaziun cosmica e cuvrida da nivels presupponì da Svensmark è vegnì demascrà pli tard sco artefact scientific.<ref name="Laut 2003">Laut, Peter (2003): ''Solar activity and terrestrial climate: an analysis of some purported correlations'', en: ''Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics'', tom 65, p. 801– 812, [http://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Publications/PDF_Papers/Laut2003.pdf (PDF)]</ref><ref name="Evan et al. 2007">Evan, Amato T., Andrew K. Heidinger e Daniel J. Vimont: ''Arguments against a physical long-term trend in global ISCCP cloud amounts'', en: ''Geophysical Research Letters'', tom 34, 2007, L04701,</ref> Tenor in ulteriur studi dal 2008 datti fin ussa nagins mussaments per ina colliaziun tranter la radiaziun cosmica ed il stgaudament global.<ref name="Sloan and Wolfendale 2008">Sloan, T. e A.W. Wolfendale (2008): ''Testing the proposed causal link between cosmic rays and cloud cover'', en: ''Environ. Res. Lett.'', tom 3, 024001 [http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/arxiv/pdf/0706/0706.4294v1.pdf (PDF, preprint)]</ref> Er auters scienziads èn unanimamain da l’avis che la cumpart da l’activitad solara al stgaudament observà saja pitschna. Fin il 1970 devi anc ina correlaziun tranter l’augment d’intensitad dal sulegl ed il stgaudament global mesirà. Ma il pli tard a partir da lura hajan cleramain ils gas da serra mess en moviment il svilup da la temperatura.<ref name="Schmitt/Schüssler 2003">Schmitt, D. e M. Schüssler (2003): ''Klimaveränderung – Treibhauseffekt oder Sonnenaktivität?'' Institut da Max Planck per eronomia [https://web.archive.org/web/20060901040025/http://www.mps.mpg.de/dokumente/publikationen/pa/pa_0301_klima.pdf (PDF)]</ref> L’IPCC stima ch’il sulegl haja contribuì dapi l’industrialisaziun cun 0,12 watt per meter quadrat al stgaudament global (cun in spazi d’intschertezza da 0,06 fin 0,30 w/m²). Quai è be ina pitschna part en cumparegliaziun cun ils gas da serra antropogens e lur cumpart da 2,63 (±&nbsp;0,26)&nbsp;w/m².<ref name="IPCC 2007"/> Dapi il 1978 vegnan las midadas da l’activitad solara mesiradas directamain or da l’orbit. Ma era las midadas mesiradas en quella maniera èn memia pitschnas per esser la causa principala dal stgaudament accelerà dals ultims 30 onns.<ref name="Foukal et al. 2006">Foukal, P., C. Fröhlich, H. Spruit e T. M. L. Wigley (2006): ''Variations in solar luminosity and their effect on the Earth’s climate'', en: ''Nature'', 443, p. 161–166, 14 da settember</ref> Sche quest’activitad avess insumma in effect sin il clima – uschia argumenteschan Lockwood e Fröhlich (2007) –, lura fiss la Terra plitost sa sfradentada durant ils ultims onns, damai che l’activitad solara è plitost ida enavos.<ref name="Lockwood und Fröhlich 2007">M. Lockwood e C. Fröhlich (2007): ''Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature'', en: ''Proceedings of the Royal Society A'', [https://web.archive.org/web/20070926023811/http://www.pubs.royalsoc.ac.uk/media/proceedings_a/rspa20071880.pdf online (PDF)]</ref> === Aerosols === [[Datoteca:Komponenten des Strahlungsantriebs.svg|thumb|left|Ils stimulants dal stgaudament global dapi il 1750 e lur effect netto sin la bilantscha termica da la Terra]] [[Datoteca:Climate Change Attribution German.png|thumb|Ils stimulants fisicals e lur cumpart al stgaudament global en il model da clima]] Ina rolla betg nunimpurtanta en il sistem dal clima giogan finas particlas en l’atmosfera, ils uschenumnads aerosols. Quels reflecteschan per part la radiaziun e contribueschan uschia al sfradentar da las stresas d’aria pli bassas. Tge effects ch’els han exactamain sin il clima, san ins da preschent be descriver cun ina gronda intschertezza. L’IPCC taxescha il grad da l’enclegientscha scientifica davart ils aerosols sco ‹mesaun› e ‹pitschen›.<ref name="IPCC 2007"/> L’influenza d’in aerosol sin la temperatura da l’aria dependa da l’autezza nua ch’el sgola. En la stresa da l’atmosfera la pli bassa, la [[troposfera]], procuran particlas da fulin per in auzament da la temperatura, cunquai ch’ellas absorbeschan la glisch dal sulegl e la dattan giu sco radiaziun termica. En la regiun enturn l’Ocean Indic han ins per exempel savì declerar che la cumpart d’in uschenumnà ‹nivel brin› al stgaudament regiunal saja circa la medema sco quella da gas da serra.<ref>Ramanathan, Veerabhadran, Muvva V. Ramana, Gregory Roberts et al. (2007): ''Warming trends in Asia amplified by brown cloud solar absorption'', en: ''Nature'', tom 448, p. 575–578</ref> L’effect che surfatschas da naiv e glatsch reflecteschan l’energia vegn numnà ‹[[albedo]]›. Quel vegn reducì entras particlas da fulin ch’èn sa tschentadas sin surfatschas da naiv e glatsch, quai che maina ad in ulteriur stgaudament. Situadas en stresas d’aria pli autas procuran questas particlas dentant ch’i vegn pli frestg sin la surfatscha da la Terra, cunquai ch’ellas impedeschan l’energia da penetrar tras las stresas d’aria. Sper il fulin furman oravant tut particlas da minerals tals aerosols en l’atmosfera. Questas particlas vegnan principalmain emessas da l’agricultura e d’indrizs industrials, ma er dals deserts.<ref>https://web.archive.org/web/20110925040005/http://www.3sat.de/hitec/magazin/98236/index.html ''Die Wüste schwebt''; 3Sat; hitec dals 17 da favrer 2008</ref> Lur surfatscha clera e reflectanta procura probablamain per ina sfradentada da l’atmosfera pli bassa. In grond factur d’intschertezza tar la calculaziun da l’effect dals aerosols sin il clima furma era lur influenza sin ils nivels. Malgrà tut las intschertezzas vegn l’effect netto da tut las particlas sgulantas taxà sco cleramain sfradentant. L’economia creschenta suenter la Segunda Guerra mundiala e la polluziun da l’aria chaschunada tras quai han l’emprim procurà per in ferm effect sfradentant dals aerosols. Fin en ils onns 1970 ha quel mascrà il stgaudament che fiss stà da spetgar. Dal 1950 al 1975 è la svapur da sulfats sa duplitgada davent da 35 sin passa 70 milliuns tonnas l’onn. Lura è questa cifra restada sin il medem nivel e davent la fin dals onns 1980 è ella puspè sa sbassada. L’onn 2000 muntava la svapur da sulfat a 55 milliuns tonnas.<ref name="Stern 2005">Stern, David I.: (2005): ''Global sulfur emissions from 1850 to 2000'', en: ''Chemosphere'', tom 58, p. 163–175, [hhttp://web.archive.org/web/*/http://www.rpi.edu/~sternd/Chemosphere2005.pdf (PDF en l’archiv web)]</ref> Davent dal 1960 è la svapur da gas da serra sa rinforzada considerablamain, uschia che la polluziun da l’aria causada dals [[sulfats]] na pudeva betg pli equilibrar l’effect stgaudant dals gas.<ref name="Meehl et al. 2004"/> La ferma preschientscha da sulfats en l’atmosfera è ultra da quai accumpagnada da consequenzas negativas sco plievgia ascha e da problems da sanadad sco asma. == Stgaudament mesirà e prognostitgà == === Auzament da la temperatura fin uss === Sco cumprova principala per il stgaudament global actual valan las mesiraziuns da temperatura ch’existan dapi ca. il 1860 sco era las evaluaziuns da divers archivs da clima. Per l’interval tranter il 1906 ed il 2005 mussan quellas en media in augment da la temperatura globala dal terren da 0,74&nbsp;°C (±&nbsp;0,18&nbsp;°C toleranza d’errur). Il pli marcant è il stgaudament ch’è vegnì mesirà dal 1976 enfin oz. Il 2010 ed il 2005 èn stads ils onns ils pli chauds dapi l’entschatta da las registraziuns l’onn 1880.<ref name="NASA 2005">NASA GISS: [http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2005/ ''Surface Temperature Analysis 2005'']</ref> Ina segunda fasa da stgaudament marcanta ha gì lieu tranter il 1910 ed il 1945. Quella è dentant vegnida chaschunada d’oscillaziuns natiralas. La fasa tranteren senza stgaudament è stada influenzada da particlas da merda e da fulin en l’aria (ils uschenumnads [[aerosol]]s) che han l’emprim gì in effect sfradentant. L’influenza totala da quest fenomen sin il clima n’è dentant betg perscrutada avunda.<ref>«''During the last 30 years, scientist have identified several major aerosol types and they have developed general ideas about the amount of aerosol to be found in different seasons and locations. Still, key details about the amount and properties of aerosols are needed to calculate even their current effect on surface temperatures; so far, it has not been possible to make these measurements on a global scale.''» Funtauna: https://web.archive.org/web/20081007050550/http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Library/Aerosols/aerosol2.html</ref> Durant ils 30 onns passads è la temperatura globala creschida per ca. 0,17&nbsp;°C per decenni (tenor mesiraziuns dal terren).<ref>Tenor GISTEMP +0,166&nbsp;°C/decenni, tenor HadCRUT3v +0,165&nbsp;°C/decenni e tenor NCDC 0,166&nbsp;°C/decada</ref> Quai vegn confirmà da mesiraziuns da satellit che mussan sumegliants trends da stgaudament. Questas datas da satellit èn vegnidas evaluadas da diversas gruppas da perscrutaziun ch’èn vegnidas a resultats levamain differents. Tenor RSS (''Remote Sensing Systems'') emporta il stgaudament dals ultims 30 onns 0,175&nbsp;°C<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20121123040542/http://www.ssmi.com/msu/msu_data_description.html#msu_decadal_trends RSS / MSU and AMSU Data Description<!-- Automatisch generierter titel -->]</ref>, tenor l’UAH (''University of Alabama a Huntsville'') 0,14&nbsp;°C per decenni.<ref>http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt</ref> Sper l’aria èn era ils oceans sa stgaudads. Pervia da l’enorm volumen da las mars e lur grond’inerzia da temperatura è lur temperatura media bain s’augmentada dapi il 1955 be per 0,04&nbsp;°C.<ref>Il magazin spezialisà ''[[Science]]'' explitgescha il matg 2007 (tom 447, nr. 7140, p. 9) ch’il stgaudament dals 3000 meters superiurs dals oceans hajan empurtà 0,03&nbsp;°C tranter il 1957 ed il 1996 – quai sin basa da recentas correcturas d’inexactadads da mesiraziuns.</ref> La temperatura da la surfatscha dals oceans è percunter s’auzada en il medem temp per 0,6&nbsp;°C.<ref name="WBGU 2006">''Wissenschaftlicher Beirat der Bundesregierung Globale Umweltveränderungen'' – Cussegl consultativ scientific da la regenza federala tudestga per midadas globalas da l’ambient (2006): ''Die Zukunft der Meere – zu warm, zu hoch, zu sauer''. Parairi spezial, Berlin [http://www.wbgu.de/wbgu_sn2006.pdf (PDF, 3,5 MB)]</ref> En cumparegliaziun cun las divergenzas da las stagiuns e da la midada da di e notg paran las cifras numnadas d’esser pitschnas. Sco midament global dal clima èn ellas dentant fitg autas – spezialmain, sch’ins considerescha che la temperatura media durant l’ultima [[epoca glaziala]] era per be ca. 6&nbsp;°C pli bassa che oz.<ref>Schneider, Thomas von, Andrey Deimling, Hermann Held Ganopolski e Stefan Rahmstorf (2006): ''How cold was the Last Glacial Maximum?'', en: ''Geophysical Research Letters'', tom 33, L14709, [http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/Publications/Journals/schneider_etal_grl_2006.pdf (PDF)]</ref> Scienziads dal ''National Research Council'' dals Stadis Unids da l’America considereschan las temperaturas actualas sco las pli autas dapi almain 400 onns, probablamain perfin dapi 1000 onns.<ref name="NRC 2006">National Research Council (2006): ''Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2000 Years'', guarda [http://www.nap.edu/catalog/11676.html online]</ref> Cun excepziun da paucas regiuns han ins pudì registrar in stgaudament sin l’entir mund dapi il 1979.<ref name="IPCC 2007, WGI, Chapter 3">''Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change'' (2007): ''IPCC Fourth Assessment Report – Working Group I Report ‹The Physical Science Basis›'', chapitel 3: ''Observations: Surface and Atmospheric Climate Change'' [https://web.archive.org/web/20171023052326/http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter3.pdf (PDF)]</ref> L’aria sur surfatschas da terren sa stgauda en general pli fitg che sur surfatschas d’aua.<ref>[http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.A4.lrg.gif NASA: ''Land and Ocean Temperature Changes''], 1880 fin 2007)</ref> En ils ultims 100 onns èn las temperaturas consequentamain s’auzadas pli fitg sur l’emisfera dal nord che sur l’emisfera dal sid<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20081014134602/http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.A3.lrg.gif NASA: ''Hemispheric Temperature Change''], 1880 fin 2007)</ref>, cunquai che la gronda part dal terren sa chatta en il nord. Las temperaturas da la notg e da l’enviern èn s’auzadas in zic pli fitg che quellas dal di e da la stad.<ref name="Vose et al. 2005">Russell S. Vose et al. (2005): ''Maximum and minimum temperature trends for the globe: An update through 2004''. En: ''Geophysical Research Letters'', tom 32, L23822. [http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/100744.pdf (PDF)]</ref><ref name="Alexander2006">L. V. Alexander ''et al.'' (2006): ''Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation''. En: ''Journal of Geophysical Research'' tom 111, D05109</ref> Repartì sin las stagiuns è il pli grond stgaudament vegnì mesirà durant ils mais d’enviern sur il vest da l’America dal Nord, la Scandinavia e la Sibiria.<ref>[http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/do_nmap.py?year_last=2008&month_last=5&sat=4&sst=0&type=anoms&mean_gen=1203&year1=1900&year2=2008&base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=1200&pol=reg NASA: ''Surface Temperature Analysis: Maps. Sources and parameters: GHCN_GISS_1200km_Anom1203_1900_2008_1951_1980'']</ref> La primavaira èn las temperaturas s’auzadas il pli fitg en l’Europa ed en l’Asia dal Nord e da l’Ost. La stad èn l’Europa e l’Africa dal Nord stadas pertutgadas il pli fitg e l’atun è la temperatura s’auzada il pli fitg en il nord da l’America dal Nord, en Grönlanda ed en l’Asia da l’Ost.<ref name="IPCC 2007, WGI, Chapter 3"/> Particularmain remartgabel è il stgaudament stà en l’Arctica, nua che l’augment annual è duas giadas uschè aut sco la media globala.<ref name="ACIA 2004">Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (2004): ''Arctic Climate Impact Assessment''. Cambridge University Press, ISBN 0-521-61778-2, siehe [https://web.archive.org/web/20130628144322/http://www.acia.uaf.edu/pages/scientific.html online]</ref><ref name="IPCC 2007, WG II, Chapter 15">''Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change'' (2007): ''Report of Working Group II, Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability'', chapitel 15: ''Polar Regions'' [https://web.archive.org/web/20081204013451/http://www.gtp89.dial.pipex.com/15.pdf (PDF, 1&nbsp;MB)] (englais)</ref> Medemamain pon ins constatar ch’igl ha dà ils davos decennis pli paucs eveniments extrems da fradaglia, ma dapli undas da chalira.<ref name="IPCC 2007, WGI, Chapter 3"/><ref name="Della-Marta et al. 2007">Della-Marta, P. M., M. R. Haylock, J. Luterbacher, H. Wanner (2007): ''Doubled length of western European summer heat waves since 1880'', en: ''Journal of Geophysical Research'', tom 112, D15103</ref> Tranter il 1950 ed il 1980 èn las temperaturas minimalas sa reducidas pli fitg che quai che las temperaturas maximalas èn creschidas (per 0,204&nbsp;°C resp. 0,141&nbsp;°C per decenni).<ref name="Vose et al. 2005"/> Dapi il 1980 n’è questa tendenza betg pli vesaivla, dapi lura sa sviluppan omaduas valurs praticamain tuttina (0,295&nbsp;°C resp. 0,287&nbsp;°C per decenni).<ref name="Vose et al. 2005"/> [[Datoteca:Atmosfera.png|thumb|220px|Las singulas stresas da l’atmosfera en survista]] Per las singulas stresas d’aria da l’atmosfera sa laschan teoreticamain spetgar differentas consequenzas dal stgaudament global. Entant che la surfatscha da la Terra e la troposfera bassa enfin media duessan sa stgaudar, laschan ils models supponer ina sfradentada per la stratosfera pli auta.<ref name="USCCSP 2006">''U.S. Climate Change Science Program'' (2006): ''Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere. Steps for Understanding and Reconciling Differences'' [https://web.archive.org/web/20061212030728/http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap1-1/finalreport/sap1-1-final-all.pdf (PDF, 9,4 MB)]</ref> Las mesiraziuns fatgas conferman quest muster. Las datas da satellit mussan ina reducziun da la temperatura da la stratosfera auta da ca. 0,314&nbsp;°C per decenni durant ils ultims 30 onns.<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20121123040542/http://www.ssmi.com/msu/msu_data_description.html#msu_decadal_trends RSS / MSU and AMSU Data Description<!-- Automatisch generierter titel -->]</ref> Questa sfradentada vegn effectuada per l’ina entras l’effect da serra augmentà e per l’autra pervia da la reducziun d’ozon entras ils CFCs che sa chattan en la stratosfera.<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20061018211453/http://www.atmosphere.mpg.de/enid/2__Ozon/-_Abkuehlung_1nh.html Dr. Elmar Uherek, : ''Stratosphärische Abkühlung, ESPERE-ENC Klimaenzyklopädie'' (Institut da Max Planck per chemia, Mainz), 11 da matg 2004]</ref><ref name="Ramaswamy 1996">V. Ramaswamy, M. D. Schwarzkopf, W. J. Randel (1996): ''Fingerprint of ozone depletion in the spatial and temporal pattern of recent lower-stratospheric cooling'', en: ''Nature'', tom 382, p. 616–618, 15 d’avust, guarda abstract [http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v382/n6592/abs/382616a0.html online]</ref> Sch’il sulegl fiss la causa principala, avessan tut las stresas stuì sa stgaudar tuttina ferm.<ref name="USCCSP 2006"/> Tenor l’enclegientscha actuala munta quai che la gronda part dal stgaudament observà sto derivar da l’activitad umana. En in studi da model cumparì il 2007 ha la cumpart natirala al stgaudament global dal 20avel tschientaner pudì vegnir calculada a sut 0,2&nbsp;°C.<ref>Ammann, Caspar M., Fortunat Joos, David S. Schimel, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner e Robert A. Tomas (2007): ''Solar influence on climate during the past millennium: Results from transient simulations with the NCAR Climate System Model'', en: PNAS, tom 104, p. 3713–3718</ref> === Stgaudament prognostitgà === [[Datoteca:Global Warming Predictions German.png|thumb|left|Intginas projecziuns dal svilup da la temperatura enfin il 2100]] Sche la concentraziun da CO₂ en l’atmosfera avess da sa dublegiar, suppona la perscrutaziun dal clima che l’augment da la temperatura media muntass tranter 1,5&nbsp;°C e 4,5&nbsp;°C.<ref name="Annan 2006">Annan, J.D. e J.C. Hargreaves (2006): ''Using multiple observationally-based constraints to estimate climate sensitivity'', sboz dals 30 da schaner [https://web.archive.org/web/20060425162945/http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d5/jdannan/GRL_sensitivity.pdf (PDF)]</ref> Questa valur è er enconuschenta sco sensitivitad climatica. Sa basond sin la rata da creschientscha da tut ils gas da serra e dal model applitgà, quinta l’IPCC cun in augment da la temperatura media globala da 1,1&nbsp;°C fin 6,4&nbsp;°C fin l’onn 2100.<ref name="IPCC 2007"/> In parameter decisiv, dentant era fitg nuncler, è la prognosa davart il svilup futur da l’economia mundiala. En il passà è la creschientscha economica stada correlada fermamain cun il diever d’energias fossilas<ref name="NEF 2006">''New Economics Foundation'' (schaner 2006): ''Growth Isn’t Working'' [https://web.archive.org/web/20081110081356/http://www.neweconomics.org/gen/uploads/hrfu5w555mzd3f55m2vqwty502022006112929.pdf (PDF, ca. 890 KB)]</ref>; tut tenor scenari èsi da quintar che quest trend cuntinueschia en il proxim futur. Supposiziuns divergentas davart quest svilup explitgan las dimensiuns e variaziuns relativamain grondas dal stgaudament global prognostitgà dals climatologs. [[Datoteca:Global Warming Predictions Map 2 German.png|thumb|Carta dal stgaudament global calculà per la fin dal 21avel tschientaner. En quest model da clima HadCM3 cumporta il stgaudament en media 3&nbsp;°C]] Plinavant po il sistem dal clima anc porscher intginas ‹surpraisas› en furma da retroacziuns ch’èn grevas da modellar (mira survart). Tuttina calculescha ina contribuziun da Barrie Pittock en ''Eos'', la publicaziun da l’''American Geophysical Union'', ch’il stgaudament futur pudess eventualmain surpassar las dimensiuns numnadas da l’IPCC. Tranter ils otg motivs per sia supposiziun sa chattan il regress da la [[stgiradetgna globala]], il grond regress dal glatsch arctic e la cumpariziun d’effects da retroacziun en connex cun biomassa.<ref name="Pittock 2006">Pittock, Barrie (2006): ''Are Scientists Underestimating Climate Change?'', en: ''Eos'', tom 87, nr. 34, 22 d’avust, p. 340–341 [https://web.archive.org/web/20071031121521/http://equake.geos.vt.edu/acourses/3114/global_warming/060822eosclim.pdf (PDF)]</ref> Scienziads da l’''University of California'', Berkeley, han empruvà da resguardar talas retroacziuns disfavuraivlas en lur calculaziuns. Els han presupponì ch’il dioxid carbonic en l’atmosfera vegnia a s’auzar dals actuals 380&nbsp;ppmV sin ca. 550&nbsp;ppmV fin l’onn 2100. Quai saja sulettamain la creschientscha che derivia da l’uman. Ils scienziads rendan attent che la temperatura augmentada sezza inciteschia u rinforzia puspè process ecologics e chemics. Quels process pon manar ad in’emissiun supplementara da gas da serra, oravant tut da dioxid carbonic e da metan. Tar temperaturas pli autas laschan las mars liber dioxid carbonic e la biomassa smarschescha pli svelt. E quai ha l’effect che dapli metan e dioxid carbonic vegn emess. A la fin vegnan ils scienziads a la conclusiun ch’il stgaudament global po esser per anc 2&nbsp;°C pli aut che quai ch’el è en la simulaziun da clima senza resguardar questa retroacziun.<ref name="Berkeley Lab Research News">''Berkeley Lab Research News'' (2006): ''Feedback Loops in Global Climate Change Point to a Very Hot 21st Century'', [https://web.archive.org/web/20081224052611/http://www.lbl.gov/Science-Articles/Archive/ESD-feedback-loops.html Online-Version]</ref> Prognosas globals vegnan anc engrevgiadas entras process da retroacziun separats e locals ch’èn fitg grevs da modellar. Quai èn per exempel retroacziuns en l’Arctica, en la vischinanza da glatschers en regress u en la schelira permanenta da la Sibiria dal Vest. Entras talas midadas dal clima localas (p.ex. +3&nbsp;°C entaifer 40 onns en la Sibiria dal Vest) pon limitas criticas vegnir cuntanschidas localmain gia tar in pitschen stgaudament global.<ref>[http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg18725124.500.html ''Climate warning as Siberia melts'' – ''earth'' – 11 d’avust 2005 – ''New Scientist''<!-- Automatisch generierter titel -->]</ref> Tals fenomens locals èn d’impurtanza centrala en la vischinanza da grondas massas da metan. L’attenziun speziala è focusada sin la schelira permanenta en Sibiria cun 70 milliardas tonnas da metan<ref>[http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg18725124.500.html ''Climate warning as Siberia melts'' – ''earth'' – 11 d’avust 2005 – New Scientist<!-- Automatisch generierter titel -->]</ref> ed anc ina bler pli gronda massa d’idrat da metan (u metanclatrat) en la mar profunda.<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20080828090137/http://pangea.stanford.edu/Oceans/GES205/methaneGeology.pdf Erupziuns oceanics derivantas da metan ed extincziun da massas], Gregory Ryskin, Northwestern University. Geology; settember 2003, tom 31, nr. 9, p. 741–744</ref><ref>[http://ethomas.web.wesleyan.edu/ees123/clathrate.htm Clathrates – little known components of the global carbon cycle (clatrats – cumponents dal ciclus da carbun global strusch enconuschents)<!-- Automatisch generierter titel -->]</ref> == Consequenzas == [[Datoteca:Sea level rise.svg|thumb|L’auzament dal livel da la mar mesirà tranter il 1993 ed il 2014 è per 50&nbsp;% pli aut che la media da l’entir 20avel tschientaner]] Pervia da las consequenzas per la segirtad dals umans, la sanadad, l’economia e l’ambient è il stgaudament global ina gronda ristga. Gia oz pon ins observar insaquantas midadas da l’ambient ch’han in connex cun il stgaudament. Questas midadas sco pli pauca naiv, il livel da la mar s’auzond, la [[retratga dals glatschers]] e midaments da l’aura valan sper las mesiraziuns da la temperatura sco confirmaziuns per la midada dal clima. Quests fenomens èn exempels per consequenzas che n’influenzeschan betg mo las activitads dals umans, mabain er ils [[ecosistem]]s. Ils effects da la midada dal clima pon esser uschè multifars e vasts che be ina pitschna part da quels po vegnir enumerada qua: * I dat ristgas per la sanadad pervia da las temperaturas d’aria creschentas. I vegn a dar dapli undas da chalira, entant ch’eveniments da fradaglia extrems vegnan probablamain a sa reducir. In studi da l’Institut per economia mundiala a Kiel, incumbensà dal [[WWF]], mussa ch’il dumber da morts da chalira vegn a s’augmentar: fin l’onn 2100 po il dumber s’auzar per 5000 morts senza resguardar il svilup demografic respectivamain per 12&nbsp;000 morts, sch’ins resguarda las structuras da vegliadetgna midadas. A medem temp sa reducissan ils morts da fradaglia per 3000 respectivamain per 5000.<ref>WWF & IfW (2007): ''Kosten des Klimawandels – Die Wirkung steigender Temperaturen auf Gesundheit und Leistungsfähigkeit'' [https://web.archive.org/web/20090902054934/http://www.wwf.de/fileadmin/fm-wwf/pdf_neu/Kosten_des_Klimawandels_Gesundheitsstudie.pdf (PDF, 5,1 MB)]</ref> In auter studi prevesa per la Gronda Britannia 2000 morts da chalira supplementars e 20&nbsp;000 morts da fradaglia pli pauc (tar in stgaudament da 2&nbsp;°C).<ref>W. R. Keatinge &amp; G. C. Donaldson: ''The Impact of Global Warming on Health and Mortality.'' En: ''Southern Medical Journal'' 97 (11), p. 1093-1099, november 2004. [http://www.smajournalonline.com/pt/re/smj/abstract.00007611-200411000-00016.htm online]</ref> * Parasits ch’han gugent il chaud (p.ex. il [[raischen]] u il [[scorset]]) e scherms infectus (p.ex. [[malaria]]<ref name="Martens et al. 1999">Martens P., Kovats R.S., Nijhof S., de Vries P., Livermore M.T.J., Bradley D.J., Cox J., McMichael A.J. (1999): ''Climate change and future populations at risk of malaria – a review of recent outbreaks'', en: ''Global Environmental Change'', tom 9, p. 89–107, [http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0959-3780(99)00020-5 online]</ref>) pon sa derasar en regiuns ch’èn fin oz anc memia frestgas per els.<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20081210034002/http://www.who.int/globalchange/climate/en/index.html Organisaziun mundiala da la sanadad: ''Climate change and health'']</ref><ref>Martens, P., R. S. Kovats, S. Nijhof, P. de Vries, M. T. J. Livermore, D. J. Bradley, J. Cox ed A. J. McMichael (1999): ''Climate change and future populations at risk of malaria'', en: ''Global Environmental Change'', tom 9, supplement 1, october, p. S89–S107</ref> Cunquai che la derasaziun da malaria è primarmain dependenta dal standard medicinal ed igienic d’in pajais, èn en emprima lingia [[pajais en svilup]] pertutgads da quest privel. Il privel d’ina nova derasaziun da malaria en Europa è fitg pitschen.<ref name="Reiter 2000">Reiter P. ''From Shakespeare to Defoe: Malaria in England in the Little Ice Age, Emerging Infectious Diseases'', tom 6, p. 1–11, [http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol6no1/reiter.htm]</ref> * En il decurs dal stgaudament global s’auza il livel da la mar. En ils ultims decennis è quel creschì mintgamai per 1 fin 2&nbsp;cm ed actualmain per 3&nbsp;cm per decenni.<ref name="Cazenave 2004">A. Cazenave, R. S. Nerem (2004):''Present-day sea level change: observations and causes'', en: ''Reviews of Geophysics'', 27 da fanadur, guarda [https://web.archive.org/web/20070203103703/http://www.eila.jussieu.fr/~avolansk/PDFS_a_convertir/Cazenave2003RG000139.pdf online (PDF)]</ref> Quai periclitescha spezialmain regiuns da riva ed inslas en quels pajais che na pon betg sa prestar mesiras per la protecziun da la riva. Tenor divers scenaris da l’IPCC èn auzaments dal livel da la mar tranter 0,19&nbsp;m e 0,58&nbsp;m pussaivels fin l’onn 2100. Intschertezzas da las valitaziuns datti pervi da la reacziun umana (politica da clima) sco er pervi da la stimaziun davart il glatsch che lieua en Grönlanda. Il motiv per l’auzament da fin uss è l’expansiun termica da l’aua sco era l’aua supplementara dals glatschers luads. Entras in livel da la mar auzà creschan en regiuns da riva ils donns potenzials entras mars burascusas.<ref name="WMO-IWTC" /> * Ils oceans na daventan betg mo pli chauds, mabain absorbeschan era dapli dioxid carbonic or da l’atmosfera e daventan aschs.<ref name="Royal Society 2005">The Royal Society (2005): ''Ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide''. ''Policy Document'' 12/05 [https://web.archive.org/web/20071001000205/http://www.royalsoc.ac.uk/displaypagedoc.asp?id=13539 (PDF, 1,1 MB)]</ref> Las consequenzas per las mars e per ils [[cural]]s pon esser considerablas, cunquai ch’ils curals na pon betg pli furmar lur vetta da chaltschina protegenta. Da questas vettas dependan blers organissems pitschens che sa chattan a l’entschatta da la chadaina da nutriment oceanica. Sche la chaltschina manca, èn las consequenzas per l’ecosistem oceanic probablamain considerablas.<ref name="WBGU 2006"/> * Entras las temperaturas da l’aria creschentas sa midan la repartiziun e la dimensiun da las precipitaziuns sin l’entir mund. Perquai ch’aria pli chauda po absorbar dapli aua, s’auza la rata da svapuraziun. Quai po manar a setgiras pli frequentas e pli gravantas. Entras l’Ocean Indic pli chaud hai per exempel dà periodas setgas pli e pli gravantas en l’ost da l’Africa<ref name="NEF/IIED 2005">New Economics Foundation und and International Institute for Environment and Development (2005): ''Africa – Up in Smoke? The Second Report From the Working Group on Climate Change and Development'', London [https://web.archive.org/web/20090519000847/http://www.neweconomics.org/gen/uploads/4jgqh545jc4sk055soffcq4519062005184642.pdf (PDF, 1,4 MB)]</ref>, entant ch’igl ha pluvì dapli en las regiuns setgas dal Pakistan.<ref>Kerstin S. Treydte et al. (2006): ''The twentieth century was the wettest period in northern Pakistan over the past millennium''. En: ''Nature'' 440, p. 1179–1182</ref> La svapuraziun augmentada maina a medem temp ad ina pli gronda ristga da plievgias grondas e cun quai er ad inundaziuns en furma d’auas grondas.<ref>P. C. D. Milly, R. T. Wetherald, K. A. Dunne, T. L. Delworth (2002): ''Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate'', en: ''Nature'', 31 da schaner, p. 514–517, V. 415</ref><ref name="Trenberth et al. 2003">Trenberth, Kevin, Aiguo Dai, Roy M. Rasmussen und David B. Parsons (2003): ''The Changing Pattern of Precipitation'', en: ''Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society'', settember, p. 1205–1217 [https://web.archive.org/web/20100611142707/http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/adai/papers/rainChBamsR.pdf (PDF)]</ref> [[Datoteca:Fields outside benambra.jpg|thumb|300px|Benambra, ina regiun en Victoria, Australia, ch’è pertutgada da setgira]] * Tenor la ''World Meteorological Organization'' datti fin uss indizis per e cunter in segn antropogen en las registraziuns davart ciclons tropics, ma fin qua n’han ins betg pudì trair conclusiuns segiras.<ref name="WMO-IWTC">WMO-IWTC: ''Summary Statement on Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change'', 2006. [http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/press_releases/2006/pdf/iwtc_summary.pdf online]</ref> Tscherts studis inditgeschan che l’intensitad da huricans saja s’augmentada en ils decennis passads<ref name="Webster 2005">Webster, P.J., G. J. Holland, J. A. Curry und H.-R. Chang (2005): ''Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment'', en: ''Science'', tom 309, nr. 5742 dals 16 da settember</ref><ref name="Emanuel 2005">Emanuel, Kerry (2005): ''Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years'', en: ''Nature'', 31 da fanadur</ref> e stettia en correlaziun cun las temperaturas augmentadas da la mar.<ref name="Hoyos et al. 2006">Hoyos, C.D., P. A. Agudelo, P. J. Webster e J. A. Curry (2006): ''Deconvolution of the Factors Contributing to the Increase in Global Hurricane Intensity'', en: ''Science'', tom 312, p. 94–97 [http://webster.eas.gatech.edu/Papers/Webster2006c.pdf (PDF)]</ref> Sco quai che la WMO punctuescha, èn las consequenzas da huricans primarmain da manar enavos sin la concentraziun creschenta da la populaziun e l’infrastructura en regiuns da riva.<ref name="WMO-IWTC" /> Tenor in studi da Pielke et al. (2008) avess per exempel il ''Great Miami Hurricane'' dal 1926 – cun ina populaziun a la riva sco oz – chaschunà in donn da 140–157 milliardas dollars (il dubel dal hurican ''Katrina'' da l’onn 2005).<ref name="Pielke2008">Roger A. Pielke, Jr. ''et al.'' (2008): ''Normalized Hurricane Damage in the United States: 1900–2005.'' En: ''Natural Hazards Review'', tom 9, nr. 1, p. 29–42</ref> Ad in sumegliant resultat vegn in studi da Brooks e Doswell (2001) ch’ha intercurì l’intensitad da tornados.<ref name="BrooksDoswell2001">Harold E. Brooks und Charles A. Doswell III: ''Normalized Damage from Major Tornadoes in the United States: 1890–1999.'' En: ''Weather and Forecasting'', tom 16, nr. 1 (favrer 2001), p. 168–176</ref> In studi da Knutson et al. (2008) prognostitgescha a lunga vista ina reducziun da l’intensitad da huricans tar in stgaudament global cuntinuant.<ref name="Knutson2008">Thomas R. Knutson et al. (2008): ''Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions''. En: ''Nature Geoscience'' 1, p. 359–364</ref> * Las consequenzas economicas èn tenor valitaziuns actualas considerablas. L’Institut tudestg per la perscrutaziun d’economia (''Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung'') stima ch’ina midada dal clima cuntinuanta fin l’onn 2050 possia chaschunar a l’economia publica custs da fin 200 billiuns US-dollars (ma questa stimaziun cumpiglia grondas intschertezzas).<ref name="Kemfert/Praetorius 2005">Kaemfert, Claudia und Barbara Praetorius (2005): ''Die ökonomischen Kosten des Klimawandels und der Klimapolitik'', en: DIW, ''Vierteljahreshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung'' 74, 2/2005, p. 133–136 [https://web.archive.org/web/20070927011509/http://www.diw.de/deutsch/produkte/publikationen/vierteljahrshefte/docs/paypapers/diw_vjh_05-2-1.pdf (PDF)]</ref> Il 2006 ha la regenza britannica publitgà il [[rapport da Stern]]. Quel inditgescha ils donns spetgads entras la midada dal clima fin l’onn 2100 cun cifras tranter 5&nbsp;% e 20&nbsp;% da la prestaziun economica globala. Mesiras da prevenziun efficazias (oravant tut la reducziun da CO₂) custassan percunter strusch 1&nbsp;% dal PNB (product naziunal brut) mundial ed èn evidentamain pli economicas che da reparar donns da malauras. (Ins sto dentant considerar ch’i po era dar auras extremas sco huricans ch’effectueschan ina reducziun da CO₂.) Dus onns suenter la publicaziun ha Stern manegià che las indicaziuns davart la concentraziun tolerabla da gas da serra sajan stadas memia optimisticas e ch’ina reducziun massiva da quellas saja necessaria. Consequentamain sajan ils custs da prevenziun ca. duas giadas uschè auts sco calculads dad el.<ref>Juliette Jowit e Patrick Wintour: [http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/jun/26/climatechange.scienceofclimatechange ''Cost of tackling global climate change has doubled, warns Stern''], ''The Guardian'', 26 zercladur 2008.</ref> Tenor l’opiniun d’auters economs èn las valitaziuns da Stern davart ils donns spetgads entras la midada dal clima memia pessimistas.<ref name="Carter et al. 2006">Robert M. Carter, C. R. de Freitas, Indur M. Goklany, David Holland, Richard S. Lindzen, Ian Byatt, Ian Castles, Indur M. Goklany, David Henderson, Nigel Lawson, Ross McKitrick, Julian Morris, Alan Peacock, Colin Robinson, Robert Skidelsky (2006): ''The Stern Review: A Dual Critique'', en: ''World Economics'', tom 7, nr. 4, october–december 2006 [https://web.archive.org/web/20090713123021/http://www.staff.livjm.ac.uk/spsbpeis/WE-STERN.pdf (PDF)]</ref><ref>Martin L. Weitzman (2007): ''A Review of the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change''. En: ''Journal of Economic Literature'' 45 (3), p. 703-724.</ref><ref>William D. Nordhaus: ''A Review of the Stern Review on the Economics of Global Warming'' (02-05-2007), proxim, ''Journal of Economic Literature'' [https://web.archive.org/web/20091122142013/http://nordhaus.econ.yale.edu/stern_050307.pdf online]</ref> Fitg gravant saja che Stern haja calculà ils custs da prevenziun be fin l’onn 2050, la summa dals donns dentant fin il 2100.<ref>Richard S. J. Tol & Gary W. Yohe: ''World Economics Journal'' 2006. [http://www.mi.uni-hamburg.de/fileadmin/fnu-files/publication/tol/RM551.pdf online]</ref> Auters economs sustegnan però ils resultats dal rapport da Stern<ref name="John Quiggin 2006">John Quiggin (2006): ''Stern and the critics on discounting'', 20 da december, [https://web.archive.org/web/20110127222724/http://johnquiggin.com/wp-content/uploads/2006/12/sternreviewed06121.pdf online]</ref><ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20081223113442/http://www.aussmc.org/Stern_Review.php ''Australian Science Media Center'': ''Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change – Australian climate change experts react''] dals 31 d’october 2006</ref> e rinfatschan tranter auter als critichers da guardar las funtaunas be en moda selectiva e defurmanta.<ref name="Simmonds und Steffen 2007">Ian Simmonds und Will Steffen (2007): ''Response to ‹The Stern Review: A Dual Critique—Part I: The Science›'', en: World Economics, tom 8, p. 133–141, [https://web.archive.org/web/20130602073657/http://www.world-economics-journal.com/Contents/ArticleOverview.aspx?ID=287 online]</ref> Las ristgas per ils ecosistems sin la Terra creschan considerablamain cun il grad da la temperatura auzada. Tenor in studi da William Hare da l’Institut da Potsdam per perscrutaziun da consequenzas dal clima èn las ristgas relativamain pitschnas tar in stgaudament da sut 1&nbsp;°C, per sistems ecologics sensibels dentant gia betg da negliger. Tranter 1&nbsp;°C e 2&nbsp;°C stgaudament datti ristgas signifitgantas e sin plaun regiunal bainduras substanzialas. In stgaudament sur 2&nbsp;°C cuntegna ristgas elevadas per l’extincziun da bleras spezias d’animals e da plantas, dals quals ils abitadis na correspundan betg pli a lur pretensiuns. Questas spezias vegnan stgatschadas u pon perfin murir or, sch’ellas na pon betg suandar las zonas ecologicas che sa spostan geograficamain.<ref name="Hare 2003">Hare, William (2003): ''Assessment of Knowledge on Impacts of Climate Change – Contribution to the Specification of Art. 2 of the UNFCCC.'' Expertisa externa per il parairi spezial dal Cussegl consultativ da la regenza federala tudestga per midadas da l’ambient globalas ''Welt im Wandel: Über Kioto hinausdenken. Klimaschutzstrategien für das 21. Jahrhundert'' [https://web.archive.org/web/20071213092330/http://www.wbgu.de/wbgu_sn2003_ex01.pdf (PDF, 1,7 MB)]</ref> Autras spezias pon percunter sa derasar meglier sche la temperatura crescha. Tar in stgaudament da sur 3&nbsp;°C spetga Hare perfin in collaps total da sistems ecologics, crisas da fom e d’aua pli frequentas e gravantas sco er ulteriurs donns socioeconomics, oravant tut en ils [[pajais en svilup]].<ref name="Hare 2005">Hare, William (2005): ''Relationship between increases in global mean temperature and impacts on ecosystems, food production, water and socio-economic systems'' [https://web.archive.org/web/20070928093518/http://www.stabilisation2005.com/58_Bill_Hare.pdf (PDF)]</ref> Segund in studi da la ''York University'' pudess l’auzament da la temperatura globala spetgà effectuar la mort da massas; passa 50&nbsp;% da las spezias d’animals e da plantas fissan victimas.<ref name="Mayhew et al. 2007">Peter J. Mayhew, Gareth B. Jenkins, Timothy G. Benton (2007): ''A long-term association between global temperature and biodiversity, origination and extinction in the fossil record'', en: ''Proceedings of The Royal Society B''</ref> Il stgaudament global na sto betg sfurzadamain sa sviluppar en moda successiva, mabain po era progredir andetgamain. Era sche quest scenari vegn valità sco fitg nunprobabel, po la midada dal clima midar ils currents da la mar ed uschia tschessentar il [[current da l’Atlantic dal Nord]] che furma in bratsch dal [[Current dal Golf]]. La consequenza fiss ina fradaglia massiva en l’entira Europa dal Vest e dal Nord. Sch’il clima sa stgauda vinavant, pudessan er auters currents oceanics sa midar cun il temp, cun consequenzas vastas per la bilantscha d’energia globala. Questa supposiziun da [[worst-case]] è stada in tema d’in studi dal ministeri da defensiun dals Stadis Unids dal 2003. Quest studi è partì da midadas politicas massivas en consequenza d’in tal svilup.<ref name="Schwartz/Randall 2003">Schwartz, Peter und Doug Randall (2003): ''An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security'', studi sin incumbensa dal ministeri da defensiun US-american [https://web.archive.org/web/20081207190958/http://www.greenpeace.org/raw/content/international/press/reports/an-abrupt-climate-change-scena.pdf (PDF, 0,9 MB)]</ref> Tenor in studi publitgà l’entschatta dal 2008 ha il stgaudament percunter effectuà dapi l’ultima epoca glaziala in rinforzament da la circulaziun oceanica. In ulteriur stgaudament da las stresas da mez da l’atmosfera en connex cun il stgaudament global manass ad in rinforzament supplementar dals currents da la mar.<ref name="Toggweiler 2008">J. R. Toggweiler, Joellen Russell, ''Ocean circulation in a warming climate'', ''Nature'' 451, 286-288, 17 da schaner</ref> == Protecziun dal clima == === Mesiras politicas === La dimensiun da las consequenzas pussaivlas dal stgaudament global maina a la dumonda, co che quellas pon vegnir evitadas u almain mitigiadas. Il cunfin tranter ina midada dal clima ‹tolerabla› ed ina ‹privlusa› vegn per exempel inditgà da l’[[Uniun europeica]] cun in stgaudament da maximalmain 2&nbsp;°C. Er il Cussegl consultativ scientific da la regenza federala tudestga per midadas da l’ambient globalas (WBGU – ''Wissenschaftlicher Beirat der Bundesregierung Globale Umweltveränderungen'') cusseglia da limitar il stgaudament a maximalmain 2&nbsp;°C.<ref name="WBGU 2003">WBGU (2003): ''Über Kyōto hinaus denken – Klimaschutzstrategien für das 21. Jahrhundert.'', Parairi spezial per la Regenza federala tudestga [https://web.archive.org/web/20090124103003/http://www.wbgu.de/wbgu_sn2003.pdf (PDF, 1,7 MB)]</ref> Fin la mesadad dal 21avel tschientaner stuess la svapur da CO₂ vegnir reducida per ca. 80 fin 90&nbsp;% visavi las valurs dal 2005 per che la concentraziun da CO₂ na creschia betg sur 450ppm.<ref name="Weaver et al. 2007">Weaver, A. J., K. Zickfeld, A. Montenegro, e M. Eby (2007): ''Long term climate implications of 2050 emission reduction targets'', en: ''Geophysical Research Letters'', [https://web.archive.org/web/20090101140003/http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2007GL031018.shtml online]</ref> Fin ussa creschan dentant las emissiuns globalas da gas da serra vinavant enstagl da sa sbassar. <br /> [[Datoteca:Windkraftanlagen_Dänemark_gross.jpg|thumb|left|Implants d’energia sco qua a la riva danaisa valan sco part impurtanta da la protecziun dal clima cun [[energia regenerabla|energias regenerablas]]]] Sin plaun global, regiunal e local èn nundumbraivlas mesiras per la protecziun dal clima pussaivlas e per part gia decididas. A vista globala furman la Convenziun da basa davart ils midaments dal clima (UNFCCC – ''United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change'') da las [[Naziuns unidas]] (UN) ed il [[Protocol da Kyoto]] ch’è collià cun quella cunvegnas obligantas tenor il dretg internaziunal public. La Convenziun da basa davart ils midaments dal clima è vegnida deliberada l’onn 1992 a [[New York City]] e suttascritta da la gronda part dals stadis en rom da la Conferenza da las Naziuns unidas per ambient e svilup ([[UNCED]] – ''United Nations Conference on Environment and Development'') a [[Rio de Janeiro]]. Tenor la Convenziun da basa vala da nov il princip che la cuminanza dals stadis stoppia reagir era senza mussaments exacts areguard la dimensiun da la periclitaziun da l’ambient. A la conferenza da Rio è era l’[[Agenda 21]] vegnida deliberada che furma dapi lura la basa per bleras mesiras da protecziun localas. Ils stadis da contract da la Convenziun generala s’inscuntran annualmain a la conferenza da clima da l’UN. La pli enconuschenta da quellas conferenzas ha gì lieu il 1997 a Kyoto en il Giapun. En il Protocol da Kyoto è la reducziun da las emissiuns da gas da serra da tut ils stadis industrialisads vegnida fixada. Insaquants stadis han perfin survegnì il dretg d’augmentar levamain lur emissiuns. Il Protocol da Kyoto è vegnì ratifitgà da bunamain tut ils stadis cun excepziun dals Stadis Unids da l’America e da l’Australia. Ord vista da la protecziun dal clima cuntegna il Protocol be reducziuns pitschnas ed insuffizientas che tanschan ultra da quai be fin l’onn 2012. In’ulteriura conferenza impurtanta ha gì lieu l’onn 2009 a Kopenhagen. Il medem onn èn ils schefs da las regenzas d’impurtants stadis industrials sa cunvegnids da vulair limitar il stgaudament global a maximalmain 2&nbsp;°C. === Pussaivladads tecnicas ed individualas === Sper las pussaivladads politicas existan sin plaun tecnic in grond dumber d’opziuns per reducir las emissiuns da gas da serra. Uschia pudess ins gia realisar cun ils meds d’oz ina protecziun dal clima efficazia.<ref name="Pacala/Solow 2004">Pacala, Stephen e Robert Socolow (2004): ''Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current Technologies'', en: ''Science'' 305, 14 d’avust, p. 968–972 [http://fire.pppl.gov/energy_socolow_081304.pdf (PDF)]</ref> Ina rolla impurtanta giogan qua spezialmain las [[energia regenerabla|energias regenerablas]].<ref name="NEF 2005">''New Economics Foundation'' (2005): ''Mirage and oasis. Energy choices in an age of global warming'', London [https://web.archive.org/web/20071031121520/http://www.neweconomics.org/gen/uploads/sewyo355prhbgunpscr51d2w29062005080838.pdf (PDF, 1,2 MB)]</ref> Las difficultads existentas ed oravant tut ils custs d’ina tala strategia d’evitaziun frainan fin ussa las investiziuns necessarias. Da l’autra vart han ins stimà ch’ina protecziun dal clima totala custass pli pauc che 1&nbsp;% dal product social brut mundial (mira survart).<ref name="Leggett 2006"> Leggett, Mark (2006): ''An indicative costed plan for the mitigation of global risks'', en: ''Futures'' 38, tom 7, p. 778–809</ref><ref name"Edenhofer 2006">O. Edenhofer, K. Lessmann, C. Kemfert, M. Grubb, J. Köhler (2006): ''Induced Technological Change: Exploring its Implications for the Economics of Atmospheric Stabilization. Synthesis Report from the Innovation Modeling Comparison Project'', en: ''The Energy Journal'' [https://web.archive.org/web/20071031121520/http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/research/imcp/synthesisreport.pdf (PDF)]</ref> Ultra da quai existan pussaivladads da prestar insatge per la protecziun dal clima cun midar il depurtament individual e la moda da consumar. Tar quellas mesiras s’audan per exempel: * reducir il consum d’energia cun sa depurtar a moda pli spargnusa u cun utilisar apparats pli efficazis * duvrar meds da transport ecologics * cumprar products da l’atgna regiun, quai ch’evitescha lungs viadis da transport cun bleras emissiuns * scursanir la chadaina da nutriment cun consumar aliments vegetals enstagl d’aliments animalics * investir er en il champ privat en purtaders d’energia regenerabels. == Perscrutaziun dal clima == La perscrutaziun dal clima cumpiglia l’observaziun en champagna e l’evaluaziun da datas climatologicas (mesirar temperaturas, datas da precipitaziun, maletgs da satellit, nuschegls da sondagi da glatsch, analisar il depurtament da viandar da diversas spezias d’animals e bler auter). Blers pensan ch’il stgaudament global saja vegnì eruì da models da computer, ma en vardad furman las datas rimnadas en la champagna il coc da la savida davart la midada dal clima. === Istorgia da la scienza davart il stgaudament global === [[Datoteca:Arrhenius.jpg|thumb|180px|left|[[Svante Arrhenius]], in dals piuniers en l’istorgia da la scienza davart il stgaudament global]] Ina descripziun da l’istorgia da la scienza davart il stgaudament global chatt’ins tar Spencer R. Weart, directur dal ''Center for History of Physics'' en ils Stadis Unids da l’America.<ref name="Weart 2003">Weart, Spencer (2003): ''The Discovery of Global Warming'', guarda [https://web.archive.org/web/20120305145343/http://www.aip.org/history/climate/index.html online]</ref> Tenor el ha probablamain [[Jean Baptiste Joseph Fourier]] (1768–1830), in matematicher e fisicher franzos, ‹fundà› la perscrutaziun dal stgaudament global. El ha numnadamain scuvert l’onn 1824 l’effect da serra. John Tyndall, in fisicher britannic, ha pudì trair a niz las lavurs da Fourier ed ha identifitgà l’onn 1862 ils gas responsabels per quest effect – oravant tut vapur d’aua e dioxid carbonic. Passa trenta onns pli tard, l’onn 1896, ha il scienzià svedais [[Svante Arrhenius]] (1859–1927) publitgà sco emprim la teoria che la concentraziun da dioxid carbonic en l’atmosfera possia augmentar sur lung temp la temperatura sin la Terra.<ref name="Arrhenius 1896">Arrhenius, Svante (1896): ''On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature of the Ground'', en: ''Philosophical Magazine and Journal of Science'', tom 41, p. 239–276 [https://web.archive.org/web/20141006232634/http://www.globalwarmingart.com/images/1/18/Arrhenius.pdf (PDF, 8 MB)]</ref> Ils onns 1930 han intgins scienzads dals Stadis Unids remartgà che las temperaturas en lur regiun eran s’auzadas en ils decennis passads. Cun excepziun da singulas vuschs è quest fatg dentant vegnì taxà sco fenomen natiral. Il climatolog tudestg Hermann Flohn è stà l’emprim scienzià en Germania ch’ha rendì attent a la midada dal clima sin basa da datas empiricas. Flohn ha abilità en la Germania naziunalsocialistica e publitgà il 1941 ses emprim artitgel davart il stgaudament global, ‹L’activitad da l’uman sco factur dal clima› – ''Die Tätigkeit des Menschen als Klimafaktor'' en la ''Zeitschrift für Erdkunde''. La fin dals onns 1950 è vegnì demussà per l’emprima giada che dioxid carbonic producì artifizialmain possia sa concentrar en l’atmosfera. En quest reguard ha l’American Roger Revelle prestà lavur da piunier sco directur da la ''Scripps Institution of Oceanography''. Charles David Keeling (1928–2005), medemamain emploià tar quell’instituziun, ha ascendì il 1958 il culm [[Mauna Loa]] a [[Hawai]] (Big Island) ed ha cumenzà là cun mesiraziuns regularas da la cumpart da CO₂ en l’atmosfera. El ha constatà ina cumpart da dioxid carbonic ch’oscillescha per ca. 5ppm CO₂ en il decurs d’in onn. Quest fenomen è da manar enavos sin la vegetaziun da las grondas surfatschas da l’emisfera dal nord che crescha la primavaira. Malgrà las fluctuaziuns èsi bain spert stà cler che la cumpart totala dal gas da serra en l’atmosfera crescha cuntinuadamain. Omadus fenomens èn bain visibels en la curva da Keeling, denominada tenor ses inventader. Tipic per la curva è il muster da ziczac regular che mussa ensi. [[Datoteca:Mauna Loa CO2 monthly mean concentration.svg|thumb|right|La curva da Keeling cun las valurs mesiradas dal dioxid carbonic en l’atmosfera]] Cun l’appariziun dal moviment ecologic ils onns 1970 è il stgaudament global era daventà enconuschent ad in public pli vast. Tranter ils onns 1940 e 1970 era la Terra sa sfradentada, uschia ch’ils meds da massa han per part rapportà davart l’uschenumnada [[sfradentada globala]]. En la scienza eran ins dentant gia lura da l’opiniun che la [[stgirentada globala]] chaschunada tras la polluziun da l’aria saja responsabla per la sfradentada. Il proxim pass decisiv è stà collià cun il svilup dal computer. Ins ha scrit emprims programs per furmar models dal clima e quels han cumenzà a simular l’effect d’ina concentraziun da CO₂ augmentada en l’atmosfera. Il 1988, fin lura l’onn il pli chaud dapi las registraziuns, ha la cuminanza dals stadis internaziunala la finala endrizzà in gremi scientific che duai analisar sistematicamain ils effects da las activitads umanas sin il clima: l’''Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change'' (IPCC). === L’‹Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change› === L’activitad principala da l’IPCC è d’edir rapports scientifics per mauns da las regenzas incumbensadras. Per quests rapports vegnan mintgamai examinadas e resumadas pliras millis contribuziuns scientificas. L’ultima resumaziun, il [[quart rapport d’evaluaziun da l’IPCC]], è vegnida publitgada l’onn 2007. Il proxim rapport è previs per il 2013. {| class="prettytable float-left" width="150" | colspan="3" align="center" style="background:#B3B7FF" |Ils quatter scenaris<ref>Sa basond sin: [https://web.archive.org/web/20071031121520/http://www.usf.uni-kassel.de/waves/vorl_endbericht/3_szenarien.pdf Petra Döll, Dagmar Fuhr, Joachim Herfort, Annekathrin Jaeger, Andreas Printz, Susanne Voerkelius: ''Wasserverfügbarkeit sowie ökologische, klimatische und sozioökonomische Wechselwirkungen im semiariden Nordosten Brasiliens'' ,''Verbundprojekt'' WAVES, rapport da l’emprima fasa principala, gruppa da scenaris, scenaris dal svilup futur a Piauí e Ceará, 15-2-2000, PDF-Datei (932 kB), pagina 17]</ref><ref name="WBGU2003">Cumpareglia ''Grundannahmen der SRES-Szenarien'', pagina 106ss., en: [http://www.wbgu.de/wbgu_jg2003.pdf WBGU (''Wissenschaftlicher Beirat der Bundesregierung Globale Umweltveränderungen''): ''Welt im Wandel: Energiewende zur Nachhaltigkeit'', 21 da mars 2003 (datoteca PDF, ca. 3,9 MB)]</ref> dal ''Fourth Assessment Report'' da l’IPCC e l’auzament da la temperatura media globala prognostitgà fin il 2100 |- |<center><small>[https://web.archive.org/web/20070501031449/http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/wg1-report.html AR4]</small></center> |orientà a l’economia<br /><small>(orientà&nbsp;economicamain)</small> |orientà a l’ambient<br /><small>(orientà&nbsp;ecologicamain)</small> |- valign="middle" |globalisaziun <br /><small>(mund&nbsp;omogen)</small> | align="center" |'''A1'''<br /> <small>(gronda creschientscha)</small><br /><small>(gruppas: A1T/A1B/A1Fl)</small><br />'''1,4–6,4&nbsp;°C''' | align="center" | '''B1'''<br /><small>(durabilitad globala)</small><br /><small>&nbsp; </small><br />'''1,1–2,9&nbsp;°C''' |- valign="middle" |regiunalisaziun<br /><small>(mund&nbsp;eterogen)</small> | align="center" | '''A2'''<br /><small>(svilup economic regiunal)</small><br />'''2,0–5,4&nbsp;°C''' | align="center" | '''B2'''<br /><small>(durabilitad regiunala)</small><br />'''1,4–3,8&nbsp;°C''' |} Ils rapports pon vegnir considerads sco ina represchentaziun d’ina posiziun da consens entaifer la climatologia, cunquai ch’els prendan ensemen tut ils resultats e las infurmaziuns relevantas or da publicaziuns dal fatg. Quest consens exemplifitgescha er in essai da Naomi Oreskes, professuressa per istorgia e studis da scienza a San Diego. Tenor ella na chatt’ins en nagin dals 928 abstracts or d’ina banca da datas scientifica cun il chavazzin ''global climate change'' in text che cuntraschess fundamentalmain a las tesas da l’IPCC.<ref name="Oreskes 2004"/> Il ferm consens è er daventà evident l’onn 2005 en ina posiziun communabla da las academias naziunalas da las scienzas da tut il pajais da [[G8]] sco era da l’India, da la Brasilia e da la China ch’al confirmeschan cleramain.<ref name="Scientific Academies 2005"/> En il quart rapport da l’IPCC vegn prognostitgà fin il 2100 in auzament da la temperatura d’aria datiers al plaun da 1,1&nbsp;°C fin 6,4&nbsp;°C ed in auzament dal livel da la mar da 0,19&nbsp;m fin 0,58&nbsp;m. Il motiv principal per il stgaudament da la Terra èn cun ina probabilitad da passa 90&nbsp;% ‹fitg probablamain› las emissiuns umanas da gas da serra. L’IPCC resguarda era las consequenzas per la civilisaziun chaschunadas da la midada dal clima e cumpareglia ils custs da las consequenzas spetgadas cun ils custs da las mesiras proponidas. Las calculaziuns da l’IPCC dal stgaudament probabel futur sa basan sin divers models da clima. Totalmain èn vegnidas fatgas 400 simulaziun calculadas dal computer. Tut tenor las supposiziuns da basa resultan differentas massas da gas da serra ed [[aerosol]]s che vegnan producids da l’uman. Las datas resguardan era las prognosas da models economics. === Model da clima === [[Datoteca: GCM temp anomalies 3 2000 German.svg|thumb|Resultats da dus models da clima da test, elavurads per il 20avel tschientaner]] [[Datoteca:CPDN-Client.png|thumb|In model da clima dal project ''[[ClimatePrediction.net]]'']] Cunquai ch’in mund da reserva ans manca per far experiments reals, vegnan utilisads models da computer fitg raffinads per calcular il clima global dal futur. Quels fan diever da ‹super-computers› ordvart efficazis per modellar il clima en in temp cunvegnent. Auter proceda il project ''[[ClimatePrediction.net]]'' che recurra al model da la [[calculaziun distribuida]] (u calculaziun decentralisada). Quest model dovra la capacitad da calcular betg nizzegiada sin dieschmillis da computers per pussibilitar uschè blers percurs da models da clima sco pussaivel. Pervia da la cumplexitad dal sistem dal clima è la calculaziun cun agid da models liada a grondas intschertezzas. Ma la modellaziun dal clima sa sviluppa cuntinuadamain.<ref name="mcguffie 2001">McGuffie, K. und A. Henderson-Sellers (2001): ''Forty Years of Numerical Climate Modelling'', en: ''International Journal of Climatology'', tom 21 [http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/Lectures/modellierung/mcguffie+henderson-s-01.pdf (PDF)]</ref> Per cumprovar quai èn differents models da clima vegnids duvrads per reproducir il decurs istoric dal clima en il decurs dal 20avel tschientaner. Damai ch’ils resultats èn stads vaira corrects, pon era las prognosas per il 21avel tschientaner vegnir considerads sco plausiblas. Sper ils gas da serra en l’atmosfera vegnan resguardads en ils models da clima spezialmain aerosols, nivels, l’ozon ed effects vicendaivels cun ils oceans sco era l’influenza da midadas solaras. En pli vegn prendì resguard sin las stagiuns u la midada da di e notg e sin ulteriurs elements climatics sco per exempel [[erupziun dal vulcan|erupziuns da vulcans]], undas da chaliras u [[El Niño]]s (midadas da la temperatura en las mars). En ina retschertga fatga il 2006 tranter 133 perscrutaders dal clima tudestgs han 17&nbsp;% inditgà che las premissas empiricas e teoreticas per calcular il clima sajan ‹oz gia accumplidas›. 67&nbsp;% eran da l’avis che las premissas ‹na sajan anc betg accumpliblas, ma realisablas en il futur›. Be 8&nbsp;% dals perscrutaders eran da l’avis che questa finamira saja ‹da principi betg realisabla› ed ils 8&nbsp;% restants n’avevan nagin’opiniun en chaussa.<ref name="kepplinger 2008" /> Sin l’entir mund vegn retschertgà intensivamain per optimar ils models da clima. == Annotaziuns == <div style="-moz-column-count:1"> <references/> </div> == Litteratura == * Kirstin Dow e Thomas E. Downing: ''Weltatlas des Klimawandels - Karten und Fakten zur globalen Erwärmung''. Europäische Verlagsanstalt (eva) 2007, ISBN 978-3-434-50610-2 * Hartmut Grassl: ''Wetterkatastrophen und Klimawandel. Sind wir noch zu retten?'' Pg Verlag, München 2005, ISBN 3-937624-80-5 * Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: ''Climate Change 2007.'' [[Quart rapport d’evaluaziun da l’IPPC]], rapports da la gruppa da lavur 1: [http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg1.htm ''The Physical Science Basis''], da la gruppa da lavur 2: [https://web.archive.org/web/20071211152540/http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg2.htm ''Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability''], e da la gruppa da lavur 3: [https://web.archive.org/web/20080429011012/http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4-wg3.htm ''Mitigation of Climate Change''] (englisch) * Bjørn Lomborg: ''Cool it! Warum wir trotz Klimawandels einen kühlen Kopf bewahren sollten.'' München, Dt. Verl.-Anst. 2008, ISBN 978-3-421-04353-5 * ''[[Le Monde diplomatique]]'': ''Atlas der Globalisierung spezial: Klima''. taz, Berlin 2008, ISBN 978-3-937683-16-4 * Hermann Ott e Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung: ''Wege aus der Klimafalle''. oekom Verlag 2007, ISBN 978-3-86581-088-5 * Stefan Rahmstorf e Hans Joachim Schellnhuber: ''Der Klimawandel''. Beck, München 2006, ISBN 3-406-50866-9 * Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, W. Cramer, N. Nakicenovic, T. Wigley, G. Yohe (ed.): ''[https://web.archive.org/web/20090720034857/http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climatechange/research/dangerous-cc/index.htm Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change.]'' Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 2006, ISBN 0-521-86471-2 (englais) * Christian D. Schönwiese: ''Klimatologie''. Ulmer, Stuttgart 2003 (2. ediziun), ISBN 3-8252-1793-0 == Colliaziuns == * [http://www.ipcc.ch/ Pagina da l’IPCC] e ses [https://web.archive.org/web/20070501031449/http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/wg1-report.html quart rapport d’evaluaziun] (englais) * [http://www.bpb.de/klimawandel/ Dossier da la midada dal clima sin bpb.de] * [https://web.archive.org/web/20090101170714/http://www.hamburger-bildungsserver.de/welcome.phtml?unten=/klima/ipcc2007 Hamburger-bildungsserver.de]: rimnada da material tar il tema clima – sa basond sin resultats dal quart rapport da l’IPCC 2007 * [http://www.agenda21-treffpunkt.de/lexikon/klimawandel.htm Agenda 21]: lexicon davart la midada dal clima, il stgaudament dal clima e l’istorgia dal clima * [https://web.archive.org/web/20120305145343/http://www.aip.org/history/climate/index.html Spencer Weart: ''The Discovery of Global Warming''], istorgia da la scienza davart la midada dal clima antropogena (englais) * [http://www.realclimate.org/ RealClimate.org] – blog d’intgins climatologs per commentar la discussiun actuala (englais) * [https://web.archive.org/web/20110716073547/http://cdiac.ornl.gov/pns/current_ghg.html Current Greenhouse Gas Concentrations] – pagina actualisada regularmain cun valurs da concentraziuns da gas da serra (englais) === Instituziuns da perscrutaziun === * [http://www.pik-potsdam.de/index_html/?set_language=de Institut da Potsdam per la perscrutaziun dal clima] * [http://www.awi.de/de Institut Alfred Wegener per perscrutaziun polara e maritima] * [http://www.wbgu.de/ Cussegl consultativ da la regenza federala tudestga per midadas da l’ambient globalas – ''Wissenschaftlicher Beirat der Bundesregierung Globale Umweltveränderungen'' (WBGU)] * [https://web.archive.org/web/20060927085623/http://www.wupperinst.org/Seiten/home1.html Institut da Wuppertal per clima, ambient ed energia] – institut da perscrutaziun cun blers studis davart la politica da clima naziunala ed internaziunala * [https://web.archive.org/web/20081220051335/http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/klimaschutz/index.htm Uffizi federal tudestg da l’ambient: ''Portal Klimaschutz''] * [http://www.proclim.ch/ Proclim] – portal svizzer per perscrutaziun dal clima * [https://web.archive.org/web/20081208094615/http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/earthandsun/climate_change.html ''NASA Goddard Space Flight Center'': ''Climate Change Resource Reel''] (englais) === Meds da massa === * [https://web.archive.org/web/20070701125244/http://www.netzeitung.de/servlets/page?section=1004 Netzeitung.de ''Spezial: Klimawandel''] * [https://web.archive.org/web/20081206043036/http://www.zeit.de/wissen/klima/forschung ''Die Zeit'': ''Klima, Wetter und Energie''] * [http://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/0,1518,k-6214,00.html ''Spiegel online'': ''Wissenschaft > Klimawandel''] * [http://themenschwerpunkt.orf.at/?story=5 ''ORF Themenschwerpunkt Klimawandel''] * [http://www.faz.net/Klimawandel FAZ.net ''Wissen'': ''Klima im Wandel''] * [https://web.archive.org/web/20090125065617/http://avinus-magazin.eu/html/steiner__achim_-_jimenez__08_0.html Intervista cun il schef da l’UNEP, Achim Steiner] [[Categoria:Scienzas]] [[Categoria:Artitgels recumandads (Terra)]] {{Artitgel 1000|+30}} sz8astxtntoyd2e24wcxq44lg33n2t3 0 9625 174154 163553 2026-09-25T00:34:52Z InternetArchiveBot 16747 Rescuing 1 sources and tagging 0 as dead.) #IABot (v2.0.9.6 174154 wikitext text/x-wiki Il '''terratrembel da Tōhoku dal 2011''' ([[lingua giapunaisa|giap.]] 2011年東北地方太平洋沖地震, litt. ''Terratrembel sin l'auta mar en l'Ocean Pacific avant la Regiun Tōhoku dal 2011'' u 東日本大震災, litt. ''Gronda catastrofa dal terratrembel en il Giapun da l'Ost'') era in [[terratrembel]] avant la costa da la regiun [[Giapun|giapunaisa]] [[Tōhoku]]. El ha gì lieu ils '''11 da mars 2011''' a las 14:46:23 uras [[Japanese Standard Time|temp local]] (5:46:23 uras UTC resp. 6:46:23 uras MEZ). Ses epicenter sa chattava var 370 km al nordost da [[Tokio]] e 130 km en l'ost da [[Sendai]]. L'event vala sco il pli ferm terratrembel en il Giapun dapi l'entschatta da la registraziun da terratrembels en la regiun. La fermezza dal terratrembel è vegnida inditgada da l'evaluaziun automatica da la [[United States Geological Survey]] cun la [[scala da magnituda dal mument|magnituda dal mument]] dad 8,9 M_w. L'ipocenter dal terratrembel sa chattava tenor questas indicaziuns en ina profunditat da 25 km.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/usc0001xgp.php |title=Magnitude 8.9 – NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN |publisher=[[United States Geological Survey]] |date=2011-03-11 |accessdate=2011-03-11 |language=Englisch}}</ref> Tenor indicaziuns da l'[[Uffizi Meteorologic Giapunais]] (JMA) aveva il terratrembel ina fermezza da 9,0 M_w; l'ipocenter sa chattava en ina profunditat da 24 km.<ref>{{cite web |url=http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/press/1103/12a/201103120000.html |title=Informationen zum Erdbeben |publisher=Japan Meteorological Agency |date=2011-03-11 |accessdate=2011-03-11 |language=Japanisch}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |url=http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/12_01.html |title=Massive quake hits northeastern Japan |publisher=NHK World |date=2011-03-11 |accessdate=2011-03-11 |language=Englisch|archiveurl=http://web.archive.org/20110727233132/www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/12_01.html|archivedate=2011-07-27}}</ref> Tenor indicaziuns dal [[Pacific Tsunami Warning Center]] (PTWC) aveva il terratrembel ina fermezza da 9,1 sin la [[scala da Richter]].<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20150722220526/http://www.staradvertiser.com/news/breaking/Tsunami_warning_center_raises_magnitude_of_Japan_quake_to_91.html Star Advertiser, 11. März 2011]</ref> Il terratrembel ha provocà in tsunami aut plirs meters. A [[Kurihara]] en il nord da la [[prefectura Miyagi]] cuntanscheva il terratrembel l'[[Intensitad (terratrembel)|intensitad]] maximala da 7 sin la scala giapunaisa (JMA).<ref name="NHK-shindo">[[NHK]] News: [https://web.archive.org/web/20110314052045/http://www3.nhk.or.jp/sokuho/jishin/JS20110311144601_20110311173631.html Intensitätsverteilung]</ref><ref name="shindo">Kishō-chō (engl. JMA): [http://www.jma.go.jp/jp/quake/20110311145338384-111446.html Erdbebenbericht: Hypozentrum und Intensitäten] (japanisch, [http://www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/20110311150145384-111446.html englisch])</ref> El ha chaschunà grondas inundaziuns e havarias tar ovras atomaras en il nordost dal Giapun. == Survista tectonica == [[Datoteca:Okhotsk Plate map - de.png|200px|thumb|left|Survista tectonica da la regiun]] :''Tge vul quai dir? → [[Tectonica da plattas]]'' Il terratrembel en la vischinanza da la costa orientala da [[Honshū]] ("insla principala") era il resultat d'ina ruttadira inversa (Überschiebung) al cunfin tranter la [[Platta Pacifica]] e la [[Platta Nordamericana]]. En questa zona sa mova la Platta Pacifica mintg'onn 83 mm en media vers vest relativ a la Platta Nordamericana. Questa sveltezza dal moviment dals continents (Kontinentaldrift) è ina valur media, che durant activitad seismica normala è considerablamain pli bassa, fin a quel punct che la tensiun stagnada vegn dada libra tut andetg entras in terratrembel. En connex cun il terratrembel da Sendai hai da tenor emprimas stimaziuns in moviment brusc dad almain 5 meters.<ref>[http://www.dradio.de/dlf/sendungen/forschak/1409147/ Intervista al Deutschlandfunk] cun [[Dagmar Röhrlich]]</ref> Al [[Foss dal Giapun]] (Japangraben) sa mova la Platta Pacifica sut il bratsch meridiunal da la Platta Nordamericana e [[Subducziun|subducescha]] ensemen cun ella vinavant sut la [[Platta Eurasiana]]. Varsaquant seismologs sutdividan questa regiun en pliras [[microplatta]]s, che en combinaziun provocheschan ils movimentsch tranter las Plattas Pacifica, Nordamericana ed Eurasiana. Quai pertutga oravant tut la ''Microplatta Ochotskica'' e la ''Microplatta da l'Amur'' en la part respectiva da l'America dal Nord e da l'Eurasia. [[Datoteca:Map of Sendai Earthquake 2011.jpg|200px|thumb|Charta dal terretrembel dals 11 da mars 2011]] Il terratrembel vegniva precedì da plirs terratrembels anteriurs (Vorbeben) significants, che entschavevan ils 9 da mars cun in terratrembel cun ina [[magnituda (terratrembel)|magnituda]] da 7,2 M_w (l'epicenter dal qual sa chattava var 40 km dalunsch da l'epicenter dal terratrembel da Sendai) e suandà da trais auters terratrembels cun ina magnituda da dapli che 6,0 M_w il medem di. Dapi l'onn 1973 avevan lieu al Foss dal Giapun nov events seismics cun ina magnituda da dapli che 7. Il pli ferm dals qual era il december 1994 in terratrrembel cun ina fermezza da 7,8, l'epicenter dal qual sa chattava var 230 km en il nord dal terratrembel da Sendai. Las consequenzas dal qual han mazzà trais persunas e bunamain 700 èn vegnidas blessadas. In terratrembel cun ina magnituda da 7,7 e cun epicenter 75 km pli al nord ha chaschunà la mort da 22 persunas e passa 400 blessads. Il december 2008 han gì lieu quatter terratrembels moderads (magnituda 5,3–5,8) en in conturn da 20 km tar il center dal terratrembel da Sendai.<ref>USGS: [http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/usc0001xgp.php#summary Magnitude 8.9 – Near The East Coast Of Honshu, Japan] (engl.)</ref> == Terratrembels posteriurs == L'emprim terratrembel posteriur (Nachbeben) significant cun ina magnituda da 7,2 M_w ha gì lieu a las 14.53 uras temp local. I suandavan auters terratrembels cun magnitudas passa 6 M_w. Fin ussa hai da passa 150 terratrembels posteriurs. == Intensitad seismica == {| class="wikitable float-right" |+Intensitad seismica pli auta ([[Scala JMA]])<br />5 u pli aut<ref name="shindo" /> |- !Prefectura !! Intensitad max. |- |[[Prefectura Miyagi|Miyagi]] || 7 |- |[[Prefectura Fukushima|Fukushima]] || 6+ |- |[[Prefectura Ibaraki|Ibaraki]] || 6+ |- |[[Prefectura Tochigi|Tochigi]] || 6+ |- |[[Prefectura Iwate|Iwate]] || 6− |- |[[Prefectura Gunma|Gunma]] || 6− |- |[[Prefectura Saitama|Saitama]] || 6− |- |[[Prefectura Chiba|Chiba]] || 6− |- |[[Prefectura Aomori|Aomori]] || 5+ |- |[[Prefectura Akita|Akita]] || 5+ |- |[[Prefectura Yamagata|Yamagata]] || 5+ |- |[[Prefectura Tokio|Tokio]]<br />(er a [[Niijima]]) || 5+ |- |[[Prefectura Kanagawa|Kanagawa]] || 5+ |- |[[Prefectura Yamanashi|Yamanashi]] || 5+ |- |[[Prefectura Niigata|Niigata]] || 5− |- |[[Prefectura Nagano|Nagano]] || 5− |- |[[Prefectura Shizuoka|Shizuoka]] || 5− |} La zona en la quala il terratrembel era da sentir, pia cun ''shindo'' (intensitad seismica tenor la scala giapunaisa, da 1 u pli aut) cumprendeva tut las quatter inslas principalas dal Giapun. Las consequenzas las pli fermas dal terratrembel tanschavan fin al nordost da la regiun gronda da Tokio, cun ''shindo'' da ''6-jaku'' („6 flaivla“) u pli aut. * 7 ** Prefectura Miyagi – [[Kurihara]]. * ''6-kyō'' („6 ferma“; 6+): ** Prefectura Miyagi – [[Wakuya (Miyagi)|Wakuya]], [[Tome (Miyagi)|Tome]], [[Ōsaki (Miyagi)|Ōsaki]], [[Natori]], [[Zaō (Miyagi)|Zaō]], [[Yamamoto (Miyagi)|Yamamoto]], [[Sendai]]: [[Miyagino-ku|Bezirk Miyagino]], [[Shiogama]], [[Higashi-Matsushima]], [[Ōhira (Miyagi)|Ōhira]] ** Prefectura Fukushima – [[Shirakawa (Fukushima)|Shirakawa]], [[Sukagawa]], [[Nihonmatsu]], [[Kagamiishi]], [[Naraha]], [[Tomioka (Fukushima)|Tomioka]], [[Ōkuma (Fukushima)|Ōkuma]], [[Futaba (Fukushima)|Futaba]], [[Namie (Fukushima)|Namie]], [[Shinchi (Fukushima)|Shinchi]], ** Prefectura Ibaraki – [[Hitachi (Ibaraki)|Hitachi]], [[Chikusei]], [[Hokota]] ** Prefectura Tochigi – [[Ōtawara]], [[Utsunomiya]], [[Mooka]], [[Takanezawa]] * ''6-jaku'' („6 flaivla“; 6−): ** Prefectura Iwate – [[Ōfunato]], [[Kamaishi]], [[Takizawa (Iwate)|Takizawa]], [[Yahaba (Iwate)|Yahaba]], [[Hanamaki]], [[Ichinoseki]], [[Ōshū]] ** Prefectura Miyagi – [[Kesennuma]], [[Minamisanriku]], [[Shiroishi (Miyagi)|Shiroishi]], [[Kakuda]], [[Iwanuma]], [[Ōgawara (Miyagi)|Ōgawara]], [[Kawasaki (Miyagi)|Kawasaki]], [[Watari (Miyagi)|Watari]], Sendai: Quartiers/fracziuns [[Aoba-ku (Sendai)|Aoba]], [[Wakabayashi-ku (Sendai)|Wakabayashi]], [[Izumi-ku (Sendai)|Izumi]], [[Ishinomaki]], [[Matsushima (Miyagi)|Matsushima]], [[Rifu (Miyagi)|Rifu]], [[Taiwa (Miyagi)|Taiwa]], [[Tomiya (Miyagi)|Tomiya]] ** Prefectura Fukushima – [[Kōriyama]], [[Kōri (Fukushima)|Kōri]], [[Kunimi (Fukushima)|Kunimi]], [[Kawamata (Fukushima)|Kawamata]], [[Nishigō (Fukushima)|Nishigō]], [[Nakajima (Fukushima)|Nakajima]], [[Yabuki (Fukushima)|Yabuki]], [[Tanagura (Fukushima)|Tanagura]], [[Tamakawa (Fukushima)|Tamakawa]], [[Asakawa (Fukushima)|Asakawa]], [[Ono (Fukushima)|Ono]], [[Tamura (Fukushima)|Tamura]], [[Date (Fukushima)|Date]], [[Iwaki]], [[Sōma]], [[Hirono (Fukushima)|Hirono]], [[Kawauchi (Fukushima)|Kawauchi]], [[Iitate (Fukushima)|Iitate]], [[Minamisōma]], [[Inawashiro (Fukushima)|Inawashiro]] ** Prefectura Ibaraki – [[Mito]], [[Hitachi-Ōta]], [[Takahagi]], [[Kita-Ibaraki]], [[Hitachinaka]], [[Ibaraki (Ibaraki)|Ibaraki]], [[Tōkai (Ibaraki)|Tōkai]], [[Hitachi-Ōmiya]], [[Omitama]], [[Tsuchiura]], [[Ishioka]], [[Toride]], [[Tsukuba (Ibaraki)|Tsukuba]], [[Kashima (Ibaraki)|Kashima]], [[Itako (Ibaraki)|Itako]], [[Bandō]], [[Inashiki]], [[Kasumigaura (Ibaraki)|Kasumigaura]], [[Namegata]], [[Sakuragawa]], [[Tsukubamirai]] ** Prefectura Tochigi – [[Nasu (Tochigi)|Nasu]], [[Nasushiobara]], [[Haga (Tochigi)|Haga]], [[Nasukarasuyama]], [[Nakagawa (Tochigi)|Nakagawa]] ** Prefectura Gunma – [[Kiryū]] ** Prefectura Saitama – [[Miyashiro (Saitama)|Miyashiro]] ** Prefectura Chiba – [[Narita]], [[Inzai]] == Effects == === Terratrembel === En la citad dad [[Ichihara]] ([[prefectura da Chiba]]) ha ina [[raffinaria da petroli]] da la [[Cosmo Oil Company]] piglià fieu.<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20120404063145/http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/japan/8375497/Japan-earthquake-causes-oil-refinery-inferno.html ''Japan earthquake causes oil refinery inferno.''] Daily Telegraph, London, 11. März 2011</ref> Trens dal [[Shinkansen]] girants èn vegnids fermads, sviadas (Entgleisungen) hai dentant betg dà.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.spiegel.de/panorama/0,1518,750242,00.html |title=Schweres Erdbeben: Verheerende Tsunami-Welle trifft Japans Küste |publisher=Spiegel.de |date= |accessdate=2011-03-11}}</ref> L'[[eroport da Tokio-Narita]] è vegnì serrà temporaramain.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/angstvornachbeben100.html |title=Japan: Gefahr durch Nachbeben und weitere Flutwellen |publisher=tagesschau.de |date= |accessdate=2011-03-11|archiveurl=http://web.archive.org/20110314044603/www.tagesschau.de/ausland/angstvornachbeben100.html|archivedate=2011-03-14}}</ref> Plirs tocs da l'[[autostrada da Tōhoku]] n'eran betg pli carrabels.<ref>[http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1365229/Japan-earthquake-tsunami-Fears-massive-death-toll.html Japan earthquake and tsunami: Fears of massive death toll | Mail Online<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref> A Tokio è il spitg da l'antenna sin il [[Tokyo Tower]] vegnì sturschì vesaivlamain.<ref>[http://www.spiegel.de/panorama/0,1518,750254-6,00.html Tokio-Tower verbogen]</ref><ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20110314195155/http://www.tagesanzeiger.ch/ausland/asien-und-ozeanien/Japan-twittert-Die-Antenne-des-Tokyo-Towers-hat-sich-verbogen/story/26706216/print.html Bild des verbogenen Tokyo Towers]</ref> Pervia dal terratrembel stueven 210'000 persunas vegnir evacuadas, 5,5 milliuns chasadas eran senza electricitad ed 1 milliun chasadas senza aua.<ref>{{Funtauna internet|url=http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/nn20110313a2.html|titel=Deaths, people missing set to top 1,700: Edano|ovra=The Japan Times Online|data=2011-03-13<!-- JST -->|lingua=en|access=2011-03-12<!-- MEZ -->}}</ref> <gallery> Datoteca:Cosmo Oil explosion 20110311.png|La raffinaria da petroli da Cosmo ad [[Ichihara]] ha piglià fieu suenter in'exploiun. Datoteca:2011 Sendai earthquake Tokyo.JPG|Passagiers sortan dad in tren fermà da la [[East Japan Railway Company|JR]]. Datoteca:Effect of 2011 Sendai earthquake in Tokyo.jpg|A [[Tokio]] ha il terratrembel chaschunà pliras fieus. Datoteca:2011 Japan Earthquake Tokyo Tower.jpg|Il spitg da l'antenna sturschì dal Tokyo Tower a Tokio. </gallery> === Geofisica === Il terratrembel ha spustà l'insla principala dal Giapun per 2,4 m<ref>{{Funtauna internet|url=http://www.theworldreporter.com/2011/03/earthquake-shifts-japan-islands-and.html|titel=Earthquake Shifts Japan Islands and Earth Axis|ovra=The World Reporter|data=2011-03-12|access=2011-03-13}}</ref> e l'axa da la terra per 10 cm.<ref>{{Funtauna internet|url=http://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/natur/0,1518,750579,00.html|titel=Starker Ruck: Japan-Beben verschiebt Erdachse|ovra=Spiegel Online|data=2011-03-12|access=2011-03-12}}</ref> Ultra da quai è la distibuziun da massas da la terra sa midada minimalmain, che aveva per consequenza che la terra sa volva uss in pau pli svelt che fin ussa. In di resp. ina rotaziun entira è ussa 1,8 [[microsecunda]]s pli curta cha avant.<ref>{{Funtauna internet|url=http://web.de/magazine/wissen/weltraum/12360486-beben-verschiebt-japan-um-zwei-meter.html|titel=Beben verschiebt Japan um zwei Meter|ovra=Web.de|data=2011-03-14|access=2011-03-14}}</ref> === Tsunami === Il terratrembel ha chaschunà il pli grond [[tsunami]] dapi 1100 onns en l'istorgia dal Giapun,<ref>Ein japanischer Professor berichtet [[NHK|NHK World News]] am Morgen des 14. März 2011 von den Häufigkeiten derartiger Ereignisse</ref> che ha devastà ina strifla da la costa cun fin 10 km vastadad per ina lunghezza da pliras tschient kilometers. Pertutgada era l'entira costa settentriunala da l'insla [[Honshū]] cun las prefecturas [[Prefectura da Fukushima|Fukushima]], [[Prefectura da Miyagi|Miyagi]] ed [[Prefectura da Iwate|Iwate]] en la regiun [[Tōhoku]]. Devastaziuns grevas mussan las citads [[Hachinohe]], [[Kamaishi]], [[Kesennuma]],<ref name="yomiuri-T110312004794" /> [[Minamisanriku]], [[Rikuzentakata]],<ref name="yomiuri-T110312004794" /> [[Onagawa (Miyagi)|Onagawa]]<ref name="yomiuri-T110312004794">{{Funtauna internet|url=http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/T110312004794.htm|titel=Number of dead, missing rises to 1,400|ovra=Daily Yomiuri Online|editur=[[Yomiuri Shimbun]]-sha|data=2011-03-13|lingua=en|access=2011-03-13}}</ref> e [[Sendai]].<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/0,1518,750278,00.html |title=Tsunami-Katastrophe in Japan: Regierung erklärt Notstand in Atomanlage |publisher=Spiegel.de |date= |accessdate=2011-03-11}}</ref> A [[Sendai]] è l'[[Eroport da Sendai|eroport]] vegnì inundà cumplettamain. A [[Kamaishi]] è il tsunami entrà lunsch viaden en la terra ed ha lavà davent bastiments, autos e chasas. A [[Hochinohe]] èn grondas navs vegnidas lavadas sin la terra. A [[Kesennuma]] èn suenter fieus ruts ora che han chaschunà incendis in grondas parts da la citad.<ref>[http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/11/kesennuma-burns-night-earthquake ''Kesennuma burns through the night after earthquake''], guardian.co.uk, 11. März 2011.</ref> Las citads da [[Minamisanriku]] e [[Rikuzentakata]] èn vegnidas devastadas cumplettamain dal tsunami, 10'000 persunas eran l'emprim sparidas.<ref>[http://www.wienerzeitung.at/default.aspx?tabID=3941&alias=wzo&cob=549582]{{dead link|date=March 2011}}</ref> Ina nav da passagiers cun 100 persunas è vegnida pigliada dal tsunami. Avant la costa dad Oarai è sa furmads gronds turnigls (Strudel) en la mar, sco gia tar tsunamis precedents.<ref>[https://web.archive.org/web/20110513234548/http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2011/03/11/japans-tsunami-triggered-enormous-whirlpool/ Why Japan's Tsunami Triggered an Enormous Whirlpool]</ref> In tren da l'[[East Japanese Railway Company]] (JR East) è svià (entgleist) sin la [[lingia d'Ōfunato]] en l'areal da la staziun da Nobiru en [[Higashi-Matsushima]], uschia che nov passagiers èn stuì vegnir salvads or dad el. Quatter ulteriurs trens sin la [[lingia da Senseki]], la lingia d'Ōfunato e la [[lingia da Kesennuma]] valavan sco sparids.<ref>{{Funtauna internet|url=http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/03/77013.html|titel=More than 1,200 dead or unaccounted for in megaquake|ovra=Kyodo News|data=2011-03-12|lingua=en|access=2011-03-12}}</ref> Il [[Pacific Tsunamic Warning Center]] ha dà or avertiments per l'arrivada dal tsunami per bunamain tut l'[[Ocean pacific]]; quests avertiments cumprendan Giapun, [[Russia]], l'[[Minami-Torishima|insla da Marcus]], las [[Marianas settentriunalas]], [[Guam]], [[Wake]], las [[inslas Yap]], las [[Filipinas]], las [[inslas da Marshall]], [[Palau]], las [[inslas da Midway]], [[Pohnpei]], [[Chuuk]], [[Kosrae]], [[Indonesia]], [[Papua Nova Guinea]], [[Nauru]], l'[[atoll da Johnston]], las [[Salomonas]], [[Kiribati]], l'[[insla Howland]], l'[[insla Baker]], [[Hawai]], [[Tuvalu]], [[Palmyra]], [[Vanuatu]], [[Tokelau]], [[Jarvis Island]], [[Wallis e Fortuna]], [[Samoa]], la [[Samoa americana]], [[Tonga]], las [[inslas Cook]], [[Niue]], [[Australia]], [[Fidschi]], la [[Nova Caledonia]], [[Tonga]], [[Mexico]], las [[inslas Karmadec]], la [[Polinesia franzosa]], [[Nova Zelanda]], [[Pitcairn]], [[Guatemala]], [[El Salvador]], [[Costa Rica]], [[Nicaragua]], l'[[Antarctica]], [[Panama]], [[Honduras]], [[Chile]], [[Ecuador]], [[Columbia]], [[Peru]]<ref>{{cite web |url=http://ptwc.weather.gov/text.php?id=pacific.2011.03.11.083004 |title=TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 004 |publisher=[[Pacific Tsunami Warning Center]] |date=2011-03-11 |accessdate=2011-03-11 |language=Englisch}}</ref>, sco era [[Alasca]], la costa dal vest dal [[Canada]] e la [[costa dal vest dals Stadis Unids]]. L'[[Uffizi Meteorologic Giapunais]] avertiva per la costa costa giapunaisa d'in tsunami da fin 10 meters autezza. La Crusch cotschna avertiva causa las infurmaziuns inizialas che l'amplituda dal tsunami po esser pli auta che l'autezza maximala da numerusas inslas en l'[[Ocean pacific]]. Be in di ''avant'' il tsunami ha la regenza giapunaisa publitgà in video d'infurmaziun davarts tsunamis che cuntegna era instrucziun da cumportament.<ref>Japanese Government Internet TV: [https://web.archive.org/web/20110314173245/http://nettv.gov-online.go.jp/eng/prg/prg2040.html Do you know how scary a tsunami is?] vom 10. März 2011 (abgerufen am 14. März 2011)</ref> {|class="wikitable sortable" style="font-size:90%;" |- |+Survista sur amplituda e temp d'arriv dal tsunami en l'Ocean pacific |- ! Lieu da mesira ! Stadi/Territori ! Coordinatas ! Temp d'arriv ! Amplituda |- | Hanasaki, [[Nemuro (Hokkaidō)|Nemuro]], [[Hokkaidō]] || [[Giapun]] || 43.3N 145.6E || 06:56 || 1,83 m |- | [[Omaezaki]], [[Honshū]] || Giapun || 34.6N 138.2E || 08:18 || 1,42 m |- | [[Wake]] || [[Stadis Unids]] || 19.3N 166.6E || 09:28 || 0,39 m |- | [[Naha]], [[Prefectura Okinawa|Okinawa]] || Giapun || 26.2N 127.7E || 09:01 || 0,25 m |- | [[Saipan]] || Stadis Unids || 15.2N 145.7E || 09:16 || 0,65 m |- | [[Tosashimizu]], [[Shikoku]] || Giapun || 32.8N 133.0E || 09:46 || 0,84 m |- | [[Yap (insla)|Yap]] || [[Micronesia]] || 9.5N 138.1E || 10:13 || 0,15 m |- | [[Adak]], [[Alasca]] || Stadis Unids || 51.9N 176.6W || 10:34 || 0,35 m |- | [[Midwayinseln]] || Stadis Unids || 28.2N 177.4W || 10:48 || 1,27 m |- | [[Nikolski (Alasca)|Nikolski]], Alasca || Stadis Unids || 52.9N 168.9W || 11:09 || 0,27 m |- | [[Kwajalein]] || [[Inslas da Marshall]] || 8.7N 167.7E || 11:11 || 0,55 m |- | [[Legazpi (Filippinas)|Legazpi]] || [[Filippinas]] || 13.1N 123.8E || 11:16 || 0,25 m |- | Shemya, Alasca || Stadis Unids || 52.7N 174.1E || 11:36 || 1,58 m |- | [[Nauru]] || [[Nauru]] || 0.5S 166.9E || 11:56 || 0,20 m |- | Dutch Harbor, Alasca || Stadis Unids || 53.9N 166.5W || 12:04 || 0,41 m |- | [[Johnston-Atoll]] || Stadis Unids || 16.7N 169.5W || 12:06 || 0,20 m |- | Tern, [[French Frigate Shoals]] || Stadis Unids || 23.9N 166.3W || 12:24 || 0,38 m |- | [[Betio]], [[Tarawa]] || [[Kiribati]] || 1.4N 172.9E || 12:25 || 0,21 m |- | Saint Paul Island, Alasca || Stadis Unids || 57.1N 170.3W || 12:28 || 0,65 m |- | Barbers Point, [[Hawaii]] || Stadis Unids || 21.3N 158.1W || 13:08 || 0,70 m |- | [[Kahului]], [[Maui]] || Stadis Unids || 20.9N 156.5W || 13:27 || 1,74 m |- | Nawiliwili, [[Kauai]] || Stadis Unids || 22.0N 159.4W || 13:43 || 0,76 m |- | [[Hilo]], Hawaii || Stadis Unids || 19.7N 155.1W || 14:09 || 1,41 m |- | [[Honolulu]], [[Oahu]] || Stadis Unids || 21.3N 157.9W || 14:10 || 0,71 m |- | Kawaihae, Hawaii || Stadis Unids || 20.0N 155.8W || 14:13 || 1,22 m |- | [[Manus (insla)|Manus]] || [[Papua Nova Guinea]] || 2.0S 147.4E || 14:25 || 0,93 m |- | [[Kanton (Kiribati)|Kanton]] || Kiribati || 2.8S 171.7W || 14:25 || 0,05 m |- | [[Honiara]] || [[Salomonas]] || 9.4S 160.0E || 14:36 || 0,26 m |- | [[Kiritimati]] || Kiribati || 2.0N 157.5W || 14:47 || 0,56 m |- | Winter Harbour, [[British Columbia]] || [[Canada]] || 50.7N 128.3W || 15:05 || 0,47 m |- | [[Subic Bay]] || Filippinas || 14.8N 120.3E || 15:17 || 0,07 m |- | Lombrum, Manus || Papua Nova Guinea || 2.0S 147.4E || 15:29 || 1,04 m |- | Kaumalapau, Hawaii || Stadis Unids || 20.8N 156.9W || 15:31 || 0,91 m |- | [[Luganville]] || [[Vanuatu]] || 15.5S 167.2E || 15:37 || 0,54 m |- | Langara Point, British Columbia || Canada || 54.2N 133.1W || 15:39 || 0,52 m |- | Arena Cove, [[California]] || Stadis Unids || 38.9N 123.7W || 15:40 || 0,82 m |- | Vanuatu || Vanuatu || 17.8S 168.3E || 15:42 || 0,69 m |- | [[Lautoka]] || [[Fidschi]] || 17.6S 177.4E || 15:45 || 0,33 m |- | [[Charleston (Oregon)|Charleston]], [[Oregon]] || Stadis Unids || 43.3N 124.3W || 15:45 || 0,49 m |- | [[Humboldt Bay (California)|Humboldt Bay]] || Stadis Unids || 40.8N 124.2W || 15:53 || 0,54 m |- | [[Pago Pago]] || [[Samoa Americana]] || 14.3S 170.7W || 15:56 || 0,34 m |- | Port San Luis, [[California]] || Stadis Unids || 35.2N 120.8W || 16:54 || 1,88 m |- | [[Crescent City (California)|Crescent City]], California || Stadis Unids || 41.7N 124.2W || 16:57 || 2,02 m |- | Port Orford (Oregon) || Stadis Unids || 42.7N 124.5W || 17:24 || 1,85 m |- | [[Bitung]] || [[Indonesia]] || 0.4N 125.2E || 17:27 || 0,26 m |- | San Francisco, California || Stadis Unids || 37.8N 122.5W || 17:49 || 0,64 m |- | [[Nukuʻalofa]] || [[Tonga]] || 21.1S 175.2W || 17:51 || 0,37 m |- | Adak, Alasca || Stadis Unids || 51.9N 176.6W || 17:55 || 1,09 m |- | Point Reyes, California || Stadis Unids || 38.0N 123.0W || 18:10 || 1,38 m |- | [[Rarotonga]] || [[Inslas Cook]] || 21.2S 159.8W || 18:13 || 0,29 m |- | [[Rangiroa]] || [[Polinesia franzosa]] || 14.9S 147.7W || 18:22 || 0,29 m |- | [[Papeete]], [[Tahiti]] || Polinesia franzosa || 17.5S 149.6W || 18:22 || 0,39 m |- | [[Nuku Hiva]], [[Marquesas]] || Polinesia franzosa || 8.9S 140.1W || 18:24 || 1,48 m |- | [[Cabo San Lucas]] || [[Mexico]] || 22.9N 109.9W || 19:06 || 0,22 m |- | [[Westport (Washington)|Westport]], Washington || Stadis Unids || 46.9N 124.1W || 19:20 || 0,62 m |- | [[North Cape]] || [[Nova Zelanda]] || 34.4S 173.0E || 20:01 || 0,25 m |- | La Jolla, California || Stadis Unids || 32.9N 117.3W || 20:07 || 0,43 m |- | Monterey Harbor, California || Stadis Unids || 36.6N 121.9W || 20:13 || 0,72 m |- | Rikitea || Polinesia franzosa || 23.1S 135.0W || 20:14 || 0,21 m |- | [[Los Angeles]], California || Stadis Unids || 33.7N 118.3W || 21:15 || 0,51 m |- | San Diego, California || Stadis Unids || 32.7N 117.2W || 21:31 || 0,51 m |- | Old Harbor, Alasca || Stadis Unids || 57.2N 153.3W || 21:54 || 0,33 m |- | Lottin Point || Nova Zelanda || 37.6S 178.2E || 22:09 || 0,33 m |- | [[Kodiak (Alasca)|Kodiak]], Alasca || Stadis Unids || 57.7N 152.5W || 22:11 || 0,28 m |- | [[Santa Monica (California)|Santa Monica]], California || Stadis Unids || 34.0N 118.5W || 22:23 || 0,84 m |- | [[Waitangi (Chatham-Inseln)|Waitangi]], [[Chatham-Inseln]] || Nova Zelanda || 43.9S 176.6W || 22:30 || 0,67 m |- | [[Acapulco]] || Mexico || 16.8N 99.9W || 22:54 || 0,77 m |- | [[Glamorgan Spring Bay Municipality|Spring Bay]], [[Tasmanien]] || [[Australia]] || 42.5S 147.9E || 22:59 || 0,19 m |- | [[Jackson Bay (Bucht)|Jackson Bay]] || Nova Zelanda || 44.0S 168.6E || 23:25 || 0,35 m |- | [[Santa Barbara (California)|Santa Barbara]], California || Stadis Unids || 34.4N 119.7W || 23:45 || 0,99 m |- | [[Baltra]], [[Galápagos-Inseln|Galapagos]] || [[Ecuador]] || 0.4S 90.3W || 23:54 || 0,82 m |- | Quepos || [[Costa Rica]] || 9.4N 84.2W || 00:01 || 0,18 m |- | Acajutla || [[El Salvador]] || 13.6N 89.8W || 00:04 || 0,20 m |- | [[Christchurch]] || Nova Zelanda || 43.6S 172.8E || 00:16 || 0,27 m |- | Owenga, Chatham-Inseln || Nova Zelanda || 44.0S 176.4W || 00:20 || 0,81 m |- | Santacruz, Galapagos || Ecuador || 0.7S 90.3W || 00:38 || 1,77 m |- | [[Manzanillo (Mexico)|Manzanillo]] || Mexico || 19.1N 104.3W || 01:17 || 1,45 m |- | [[Osterinsel]] || [[Chile]] || 27.2S 109.4W || 01:24 || 0,73 m |- | [[La Libertad (Ecuador)|La Libertad]] || Ecuador || 2.2S 80.9W || 02:39 || 1,23 m |- | Atico || [[Peru]] || 16.2S 73.7W || 04:05 || 0,33 m |- | [[Coquimbo]] || Chile || 30.0S 71.3W || 04:38 || 1,46 m |- | [[Callao]] || Peru || 12.1S 77.2W || 04:44 || 1,67 m |- | [[Caldera (Chile)|Caldera]] || Chile || 27.1S 70.8W || 04:46 || 1,41 m |- | [[Talcahuano]] || Chile || 36.7S 73.1W || 05:33 || 1,06 m |- | [[San Félix]] || Chile || 26.3S 80.1W || 05:36 || 0,51 m |- | [[Iquique]] || Chile || 20.2S 70.1W || 05:44 || 0,72 m |- | [[Corral (Chile)|Corral]] || Chile || 39.9S 73.4W || 06:02 || 1,25 m |- | [[Arica]] || Chile || 18.5S 70.3W || 06:19 || 1,25 m |- class="sortbottom" | colspan="5" | Funtaunas: NOAA [https://web.archive.org/web/20110314185752/http://ptwc.weather.gov/ptwc/text.php?id=pacific.2011.03.12.063606 PTWC] & [http://wcatwc.arh.noaa.gov/2011/03/11/lhvpd9/25/messagelhvpd9-25.htm AWCTWC]. Tut las indicaziuns èn en [[UTC]]. Uras tranter 00:00 e 06:30 valan per ils 12 da mars. |} == Colliaziuns == {{commons|Category:2011 Sendai earthquake|Terratrembel da Sendai 2011}} ;Live streams da la televisiun giapunaisa * [https://web.archive.org/web/20110314164925/http://www.ustream.tv/user/NHK-TV/shows Live streams] dals chanals NHK General (per giapunais) ed NHK World (per englais) * [https://web.archive.org/web/20090130031449/http://www.tagesschau.de/commons/include/multimedia/style_video_wmv_live_cover.jsp?res=high&typ=2 Live stream] dal chanal englais da l'emettur public giapunais [[Nippon Hōsō Kyōkai]] (NHK) via tagesschau.de ;Novitads {{Wikinews|Schweres Erdbeben vor der japanischen Küste löst verheerenden Tsunami aus}} * [https://web.archive.org/web/20110411215909/http://www.rtr.ch/home/dossiers/actual/Terratrembel-en-il-Giapun.html Dossier da Radiotelevisiun Svizra Rumantscha], rimnada da novitads ed infurmaziuns da basa ;Infurmaziuns generalas * [https://web.archive.org/web/20110314184700/http://ptwc.weather.gov/index.php?region=1 Pacific Tsunami Warning Center] * [http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/usc0001xgp.php United States Geological Survey] * [http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/event.php?id=49622 Earthquake and Tsunami near Sendai, Japan] earthobservatory.nasa.gov (abgerufen am 12. März 2011) == Referenzas == <references/> [[Categoria:Geologia]] [[Categoria:Catastrofa da la natira]] [[Categoria:Istorgia dal Giapun]] [[Categoria:Temp modern‎]] 2k78b9zzamcl6afl4j3w29elsy1ayim