Scots pairlamentary walin, 2007

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1999 walin
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The Scots pairlamentary walin, 2007, will be the thrid general election[1] tae the devolved Scots Pairlament syne it wis creatit in 1999. Pollin will tak place on Thuirsday 3 Mey less twa-thrids o CSPs votes tae dissolve Pairlament afore then.

The Scots Executive, wi Jack McConnell as First Meinister, will gang intae the walin wit a smaa majority consistin o a Labour an Leiberal Democrat coalition. The coalition haes been in pouer, wi three different First Meinisters, syne the first Scots Pairlament walin in 1999. Opeenion polls suggests its majority micht be tint in 2007, acause o dwynin support for the Labour Pairty an risin support for ither pairties. Nane o the pairties is like tae acquire an oweraa majority, an there isna onie obvious alternative coalition ready tae form a new Executive.

The Scottis Naitional Pairtie (SNP), saicont place ahint Labour in terms of nummers o CSPs the nou, seems best placed tae gain frae shiftin votin pattrens if Labour is gaunae loss seats, an, based on current projections frae recent opeenion polls, there micht be an SNP-Leeberal Democrat coalition, that micht extend tae include the Scots Green Pairty.[2] Ither pairties nou representit in the Pairlament includes the Conservative an Unionist Pairty, the Scots Socialist Pairty, Solidarity an the Scots Senior Ceitizen's Unity Pairty.

Table o contents

[edit] Election seestem

The walin will be the first uisin consteituencies that arna identical tae consteituencies o the Hoose o Commons. Scots Wastmeinster consteituencies wis replaced wi a new set o consteituencies, fewer in number but for normal lairger, in 2005.

The Arbuthnott Commission reportit in Januar 2006, concernin the nummer o votin seestems an electoral divisions in Scotland, but there willna be onie chynge tae the Halieruid election seestem, cept as regairds uiss o vote-coonting machines an the design o the ballot paper, afore the 2007 walin.

[edit] Pairty leaders

[edit] Major pairties

O the major pairty leaders in the Scots Pairlament, juist the ane, Jack McConnell, o the Scots Labour Pairty focht the 2003 Scots Pairlamentary walin as leader. Nicol Stephen succeedit Jim Wallace as Depute First Meinister an Leader o the Scots Leiberal Democrats in Juin 2005, efter Wallace annoonced that he wadna be contestin the 2007 walin.[3] Alex Salmond wis electit convener of the Scottis Naitional Pairty in 2004, wi his depute Nicola Sturgeon.[4] Salmond haed led the SNP afore, atween 1990 an 2000, but demittit an wis replaced bi his preferred successor John Swinney, that led the pairty atween 2000 and 2004. Aifter Swinney's resignation in 2004, Salmond annoonced that he wad contest for the leadership aince mair, an he bore the gree in the ballot o SNP members in Juin 2004. Annabel Goldie wis electit leader o the Scottish Conservatives in November 2005[5] aifter the resignation o the incumbent David McLetchie on October 31, 2005 aifter a row aboot taxi expenses.[6]

[edit] Opeinion polls

The first feigur for ilka pairty is for the first, first-past-the-post, consteituency, vote; the saicont feegur is for the saicont, proportional representation, regional, vote. The Scots Green Pairty haes sayed that thay willna rin candidates in consteituencies in the 2007 walin, sae consteituency vailyies in polls for that pairty disna hae muckle meanin.

Poll Dates Lab SNP Con LD Grn SSP ither
1st 2nd 1st 2nd 1st 2nd 1st 2nd 1st 2nd 1st 2nd 1st 2nd
Scotsman/ICM 27 Nov
2006
29% 26% 34% 31% 13% 12% 17% 19% - - 3% 4% - -
Scotsman/ICM 1 Nov
2006
30% 28% 32% 28% 14% 14% 15% 17% 3% 6% 4% 4% - -
Sunday Mail/Progressive Partnership 18-20 Oct
2006
32% 25% 35% 28% 11% 11% 16% 26% - 4% 2% 5% - -
Sunday Times/YouGov 5-7 Sept
2006
30% 27% 29% 29% 14% 14% 18% 15% - - - - 10% 15%
Herald/System 3 24-29 Aug
2006
36% 28% 28% 27% 12% 11% 17% 19% 3% 8% 4% 6% - -
SNP/Scottish Opinion 27 Aug
2006
29% - 33% - 10% - 19% - 5% - 2% - - -
Herald/System 3 27 Jul - 1 Aug
2006
37% 29% 29% 32% 13% 10% 14% 15% 2% 8% 3% 4% - -
Herald/System 3 29 Jun - 4 Jul
2006
37% 29% 31% 33% 11% 9% 14% 17% 3% 5% 3% 5% - -
Ipsos MORI 1 Jul
2006
28% 26% 30% 28% 15% 16% 19% 19% 4% 6% 1% 1% 3% 4%
Result election 2003 1 May
2003
34.89% 29.30% 23.77% 20.86% 16.53% 15.50% 15.13% 11.78% - 6.68% 6.22% 6.90% 3.46% 8.97%

The Scotsman statit that the findins o thair poll wad gie a seat distribution as follaes: Labour 41 CSPs (-9), SNP 37 CSPs (+10), Leiberal Democrats 25 CSPs (+8), Conservative an Unionists 17 CSPs (-1), Scots Greens 5 CSPs (-2), ithers 4 CSPs (-6).

The Sunday Times statit that the findins o thair poll wad gie a seat distribution as follaes: Labour 42 CSPs (-8), SNP 38 CSPs (+11), Leiberal Democrats 19 CSPs (+2), Conservative an Unionists 17 CSPs (-1), Scots Greens 9 CSPs (+2), ithers 4 CSPs (-6).

[edit] Constitutional issue

On the 1st November 2006 The Scotsman publisht an opeinion poll [7] conductit bi ICM. The survey foond that 51% wis in favour o Scots unthirldom, wi 37% agin.

On the 10t September 2006 The Sunday Times Scotland publisht an opeinion poll [8] conductit bi YouGov. 1176 respondents wis interviewed atween 5-7 September 2006 [9]. The survey foond that 44% wis in favour whan askit "If there were a referendum tomorrow on whether Scotland should become an independent country, separate from the rest of the United Kingdom, how would you be inclined to vote?" 42% wis agin, an 15% didna ken. 64% wis for giein the Scots Pairlament mair pouers, wi 19% disagreein.

[edit] CSPs expectit tae be demittin at the neist walin

[edit] Labour

  • Susan Deacon, Embra Aest an Musselburgh [1]
  • John Home Robertson, Aest Lowden [2]
  • Janis Hughes, Glesga Rutherglen [3]
  • Kate Maclean, Dundee Wast [4]
  • Maureen MacMillan, Hielands an Islands list [5]

[edit] Scottis Naitional Pairtie

  • Bruce McFee, Wast of Scotland list [6]
  • George Reid, Ochil [7]

[edit] Conservative an Unionists

  • Phil Gallie, Sooth o Scotland list [8]
  • James Douglas-Hamilton, Lowden list [9]
  • David McLetchie, Embra Pentlands [10] (uncertain)

[edit] Leiberal Democrats

  • Donald Gorrie, Central Scotland list [11]
  • Jim Wallace, Orkney [12]

[edit] Scots Socialist Pairty

[edit] Unthirlt CSPs

  • Brian Monteith, Mid Scotland an Fife list [13]
  • Jean Turner, Strathkelvin an Bearsden [14] (uncertain)

[edit] References

  1. Scotland Act 1998 - Part I - Section 2 - General elections. www.opsi.gov.uk.
  2. Lib Dems choose Stephen as leader. BBC News. BBC (23 June 2005). Retrieved on 2006-10-11.
  3. Salmond is SNP leader again with Sturgeon as No 2. Edinburgh Evening News. Scotsman (3 September 2004). Retrieved on 2006-10-11.
  4. Tories have their 'coronation' as Goldie becomes leader unopposed. Scotsman (3 November 2005). Retrieved on 2006-10-11.
  5. McLetchie finally quits over taxi row. The Scotsman. Scotsman (1 November 2005). Retrieved on 2006-10-11.
  6. "Vital gains forecast for SNP in swing from Labour", The Scotsman, 1 November, 2006
  7. "Labour turmoil as Scots back independence", The Sunday Times - Scotland, 10 September, 2006
  8. YouGov / Sunday Times (Scotland) Survey Results, YouGov plc

[edit] See an aw

  • Walins in Scotland

[edit] Fremmit airtin

In ither leids